HomeMy WebLinkAboutResolution 2025-32, Adopting a Climate Resiliency ChapterCity of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
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City of East Wenatchee, Washington
Resolution No. 2025-32
A Resolution of the City of East Wenatchee, Washington, adopting a Climate Resiliency chapter within the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan.
1.Alternate format.
1.1. Para leer este documento en otro formato (español, Braille, leer en voz alta,etc.), póngase en contacto con el vendedor de la ciudad al alternateformat@eastwenatcheewa.gov, al (509) 884-9515 o al 711 (TTY). 1.2. To read this document in an alternate format (Spanish, Braille, read aloud, etc.), please contact the City Clerk at alternateformat@eastwenatcheewa.gov, at (509) 884-9515, or at 711 (TTY).
2.Authority.
2.1. The City of East Wenatchee is a non-charter code City duly incorporated andoperating under the laws of the State of Washington.
2.2. RCW 35.11.020 and RCW 35A.12.190 authorize the City of East Wenatchee(“City Council”) to organize and regulate its internal affairs.
3.Recitals.
3.1. On March 24, 2025, the proposed amendments were transmitted to theWashington State Department of Commerce for 60-day review as required by RCW 36.70A.106. The comment period ended on May 23, 2025.
3.2. On May 28, 2025, the East Wenatchee Planning Commission held an open-record public hearing and deliberated the merits of the proposal. No public comment was received at the hearing.
3.3. The planning commission voted, 6-0, to recommend that the City Council approve CPA/ZC 2025-01.
THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF EAST WENATCHEE DO RESOLVE AS FOLLOWS:
Section 1: Purpose. To adopt a Climate Resiliency Chapter within the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan.
Section 2: Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law. The City Council adopts the Recitals stated above as well as the findings of fact and conclusion of law as set forth below.
City of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
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2.1 FINDINGS OF FACT
2.1.1 The project proposal is to adopt a new climate resiliency chapter to the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan.
2.1.2 In 2023 the Washington State Legislature adopted ESSHB 1181 amending RCW 36.70A.070 to include a climate resiliency planning. The legislation requires that a new climate resiliency element be adopted into the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan.
2.1.3 Douglas County does not meet the criteria in RCW 36.70A.095 and therefore East Wenatchee is not required to develop a greenhouse gas emissions reduction subelement.
2.1.4 The Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan (2021) reflects the community’s preferred future and contains goals and policies pertaining to the proposed amendments.
2.1.5 Douglas County and East Wenatchee have adopted the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan in accordance with the provisions of the Growth Management Act and RCW Chapter 36.70A
2.1.6 The proposal will be applicable to properties within the city limits and in the unincorporated area within the urban growth area surrounding the City of East Wenatchee in Douglas County, Washington.
2.1.7 Douglas County and East Wenatchee coordinate in long-range planning within the Greater East Wenatchee Area. The Douglas County Regional Policy Plan, as amended, established the protocol for comprehensive plan amendments.
2.1.8 RCW Chapters 36.70A authorize cities and counties to adopt and amend comprehensive plans and development regulations.
2.1.9 The city established a Climate Policy Advisory Team to analyze climate information, provide recommendations on areas of focus and review and comment on draft documents. The team was comprised of a council member, two planning commissioners, city staff, and members of the public with interest in climate resiliency planning.
2.1.10 A survey was developed to solicit public input regarding climate hazards and related issues within the East Wenatchee Area. The survey was promoted on the city website and social media. The survey was also distributed to the following groups in the community: Thriving Together NCW, Chelan Douglas Land Trust, NCW Audubon Society, Wenatchee Pride, Team Naturaleza, Chelan Douglas Master Gardeners, Eastmont High School – Environmental Club, FFA, Wenatchee Valley Chamber, Hispanis Business Council, Cascadia Conservation District, YWCA, Sustainable NCW, NCW Equity Alliance.
City of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
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2.1.11 A Climate Impacts Assessment Summary (10-10-2024) was developed to identify the historical and projected climate impacts in order to support the climate gaps and opportunities assessment of the comprehensive plan and inform the climate vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability assessment uses best available science and scientifically credible climate projections and impact scenarios to evaluate community and physical asset vulnerability to extreme heat and extreme precipitation.
2.1.12 A Climate Vulnerability Assessment (March 2025) was developed to evaluated the vulnerability of East Wenatchee’s physical and social assets to extreme heat and precipitation. Additionally, it assesses the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the assets and communities to support the identification of policies and actions that the City can take to reduce the risks of climate change.
2.1.13 RCW 36.70A.070(9)(e)(i) requires that the resiliency element include goal and policy language focusing in three areas: enhancing natural areas; prioritizing resiliency improvements in overburdened communities; and addressing natural hazards linked to climate change. Goals 12 and 13, Policies 40 and 41 focus on protection and enhancement of natural areas to foster resiliency to climate impacts. Policies CR-1, CR-8, CR-21, and CR-36 prioritize actions that benefit overburdened communities that will disproportionately suffer from compounding environmental impacts. Lastly, the primary goals and policies addressing natural hazards created or aggravated by climate change are: Goal 7 and 16, Policies CR-26, CR-27 , CR-29, CR-36, CR-37, CR-40, CR-47.
2.1.14 The climate resiliency planning process and documents were reviewed by the planning commission or city council at the following public meetings:
2.1.14.1 May 22, 2024 – Planning Commission Workshop
2.1.14.2 January 22, 2025 – Planning Commission Workshop
2.1.14.3 January 30, 2025 – City Council Workshop
2.1.14.4 April 17, 2025 – City Council Workshop
2.1.14.5 April 23, 2025 – Planning Commission Workshop
2.1.15 The planning commission is responsible for long-range planning matters and providing implementation recommendations to assure compliance with the GMA.
2.1.16 RCW 36.70A.106 requires submittal of amendments to comprehensive plans and development regulations to the Washington State Department of Commerce – Growth Management Services and other state and local agencies for a 60-day review. The proposal was submitted to Commerce on March 24, 2025. The review period terminated on May 23, 2025.
City of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
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2.1.17 City staff operated a information booth at the following public events to present the draft documents, discuss the results, and encourage people to review the documents and provide comment:
2.1.17.1 April 12, 2025 – Greater Wenatchee Arbor Day Association Tree Distribution
2.1.17.2 April 19, 2025 – Sustainable NCW Earth Day Fair
2.1.17.3 May 3, 2025 – East Wenatchee Classy Chassis Car Show
2.1.18 The proposed amendments have been posted on the City’s website and social media.
2.1.19 Notification of the availability of the proposed amendments was emailed to agencies and utilities operating in the East Wenatchee Urban Growth Area.
2.1.20 Comments received as of the writing of this staff report have been logged into a comment matrix which includes a staff response. Comments were received from the WA Dept. of Natural Resources, WA Dept. of Commerce, and WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife.
2.1.21 A threshold determination and environmental review pursuant to RCW 43.21C the State Environmental Policy Act was completed and a Determination of Non-significance including a comment period was issued on March 24, 2025. The comment period for the Determination of Non-significance ends on May 23, 2025. At the writing of this staff report, no comments have been received regarding the environmental impacts of this proposal.
2.1.22 Advertisement of the Planning Commission’s public hearing was published in The Wenatchee World on May 17, 2025 and posted on the City’s web site.
2.1.23 The East Wenatchee Planning Commission held a duly advertised open-record public hearing on May 28, 2025. The planning commission entered into the record the files on these amendments, accepted public testimony, and deliberated the merits of the proposals.
2.1.24 Any Finding of Fact that is more correctly a Conclusion of Law is hereby incorporated by this reference.
2.2 CONCLUSIONS
2.2.1 The proposed amendments to the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan are consistent with the procedural requirements of RCW 36.70A.
2.2.2 The proposal has been processed in compliance with the procedural and substantive requirements of the State Environmental Policy Act, RCW 43.21C.
City of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
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2.2.3 Proper legal requirements of RCW 36.70A.106, EWMC Title 19, were met and the community was given the opportunity to comment on the proposal at a duly noticed public hearing.
2.2.4 The proposed comprehensive plan amendments and the process used are consistent with the Douglas County Regional Policy Plan.
2.2.5 Approval of the proposal will not be detrimental to the public health, safety, and general welfare.
2.2.6 It is the determination of the lead agency that no more than a moderate effect on the environment is a reasonable probability as a result of the proposed action. The proper exercise of the threshold determination process as required by WAC 197-11 is that an environmental impact statement is not required to be prepared for this project.
2.2.7 The proposed amendments have been processed in a manner consistent with the requirements of the Revised Code of Washington and the Washington Administrative Code.
2.2.8 Any Conclusion of Law that is more correctly a Finding of Fact is hereby incorporated by this reference
Section 3: Amendments. The City Council amends the Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan as set forth in Exhibit A.
Section 4: Severability. If a court of competent jurisdiction declares any provision in this resolution to be contrary to law, such declaration shall not affect the validity of the other provisions of this Resolution.
Section 5: Submittal of Notice of Adoption. In accordance with RCW 36.70A.106, this Resolution shall be transmitted by the Community Development Director to the Washington State Department of Commerce within 10 days of adoption.
Passed by the City Council of East Wenatchee, at a regular meeting thereof on this
17th day of June 2025.
CITY OF EAST WENATCHEE,
WASHINGTON
Jenil^aCr^wfordfJun 19. 202S 16:42 PD1')
Jerrilea Crawford, Mayor
ATTEST:
>u^^^^^^^
Anna Laura JLeonTSlty Clerk
Approved as to form only:
^^_
Robert R. Siderius, City Attorney
FILED WITH THE CITY CLERK:
PASSED BY THE CITY COUNCIL:
EFFECTIVE DATE:
06-11-2025
06-17-2025
06-17-2025
City of East Wenatchee Resolution No. 2025-32 with Exhibit A
Retain Resolution until no longer needed for City-business, then transfer to Washington State Archives (GS50-05A-
16 Rev. 1).
Page 6 of 6
GREATER EAST WENATCHEE AREA
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
CLIMATE RESILIENCY CHAPTER
CITY OF EAST WENATCHEE
WASHINGTON
MAY 2025
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
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The East Wenatchee Climate Resiliency Chapter is supported with funding from Washington’s
Climate Commitment Act. The CCA supports Washington’s climate action efforts by putting cap-
and-invest dollars to work reducing climate pollution, creating jobs, and improving public health.
Information about the CCA is available at www.climate.wa.gov.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
Page 3 of 40
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
INTRODUCTION 6
Purpose 6
Background 6
State Requirement 7
Project Framework 7
Alignment with Other Planning Efforts 12
Public Engagement 13
Climate Impacts Summary 15
Overview 15
Climate Vulnerability Assessment 28
Introduction 28
Why Assess Climate Change Vulnerability? 29
Climate Vulnerability Framework 29
East Wenatchee’s Climate Risks: Heat and Flooding 31
Conclusion 33
Goals and Policies 34
Appendix A 42
Climate Impact Summary 42
Appendix B 43
Public Engagement Summary 43
Appendix C 44
Climate Vulnerability Assessment 44
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
Page 4 of 40
Table of Tables
Table 1. Extreme Heat Affected Sectors and Assets 19
Table 2. Wildfire Danger in Douglas County 20
Table 3. Wildfire and Smoke-affected Sectors and Assets 21
Table 4. Drought-Affected Sectors and Assets 23
Table 5. Annual Precipitation Douglas County 24
Table 6. Extreme Precipitation and Flooding-Affected Sectors and Assets 26
Table 7. Heat Vulnerability Assessment At-A-Glance for
the City Limits and UGA 32
Table of Figures
Figure 1. Cascadia Consulting Climate Impact Summary 16
Figure 2. Annual Average Temperature East Wenatchee
(Office of the Washington State Climatologist, 2023) 17
Figure 3. Summer Average Maximum Temperature Douglas County 18
Figure 4. Wildfire Likelihood Douglas County 20
Figure 5. Projected change in Summer and Winter precipitation (%)
for areas east of the Cascades in the 2050s and 2080s relative to
1950-1999 for a high emission scenario (Rogers, 2021) 25
Figure 6. East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Definitions 30
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
Page 5 of 40
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
Page 6 of 40
CHAPTER 11
INTRODUCTION
Purpose
The Climate Resiliency Chapter outlines East Wenatchee’s proactive approach to
addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Its purpose is to mitigate climate
threats, enhance resilience, and promote sustainability, thereby fostering responsible
development, environmental stewardship, and improving the well-being of the community.
Acknowledging that climate change presents risks to public health, safety, and community
assets, this chapter details key actions to strengthen the city's preparedness and
resilience, with an emphasis on collaboration, respect, and forward-thinking progress.
As the first iteration, this chapter establishes a foundation for integrating climate
considerations with the most significant impacts on East Wenatchee into the
Comprehensive Plan, shaping future growth and development strategies. Building on the
state’s definition of climate resilience as “the ongoing process of anticipating, preparing
for, and adapting to changes in climate,” this chapter underscores the importance of
mitigating natural hazards, adapting to unavoidable impacts, and restoring vital natural
systems, all through an equity lens to ensure that vulnerable populations are supported in
adapting to and recovering from climate-related challenges.
Background
Our findings indicate that East Wenatchee will be exposed to emerging climatic threats
primarily in the form of extreme heat, wildfires and smoke, droughts, and extreme
precipitation and flooding. East Wenatchee’s Climate Resiliency Chapter is an action plan
to identify weaknesses, avoid climatic threats, and establish resiliency in the community.
This plan demonstrates the steps required to respond to threats to the environment and
keep the community healthy and safe through integrating urban planning with
preparedness and adaptation to climatic change. Sustainable water management is an
imperative priority in this plan, alongside wildfire avoidance practices and infrastructure
resilience investments. It also emphasizes collaboration with Douglas County, state
agencies, and local stakeholders to strengthen the city's ability to address evolving
climate threats. The plan aligns with the Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard
Mitigation Plan, ensuring a coordinated approach to climate response and preparedness.
By embracing forward-looking resilience practices and policy, this city is serving to be an
advocate for environmental stewardship, economic stability, and continued flourishing in
the community. This not only meets the short-term statewide climate planning
requirements but prepares the city for an enduring future that is sustainable, healthy, and
prosperous well beyond this generation.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – Climate Chapter
Page 7 of 40
State Requirement
The Climate Resiliency Chapter also emphasizes collaboration with Douglas County,
state agencies, and local stakeholders to strengthen the city's ability to address evolving
climate threats. The Climate Resiliency Chapter aligns with the Douglas County Multi-
Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan, ensuring a coordinated approach to climate
response and preparedness, with a focus on climate impacts to vulnerable populations
and overburdened communities.
In 2023, Washington State enacted House Bill 1181, adding a climate goal to the Growth
Management Act (GMA) and requiring local Comprehensive Plans to include a “climate
element”, or “chapter” or “plan”. These chapters must maximize economic, environmental,
and social co-benefits while prioritizing environmental justice to prevent worsening
environmental health disparities. Jurisdictions may integrate this element into an
independent chapter or across sections such as land use, transportation, and housing.
Guidance from the Washington State Department of Commerce further supports this
process, helping jurisdictions incorporate climate considerations into local planning in
alignment with statutory requirements.
Project Framework
As part of the overarching goal of this Climate Resiliency Chapter, East Wenatchee must
address “climate resilience” or “resiliency” by addressing the following requirements per
(RCW 36.70A.070(9)( e) (i) (A-C):
1. Address natural hazards created or aggravated by climate change, including sea level
rise, landslides, flooding, drought, heat, smoke, wildfire, and other effects of changes
to temperature and precipitation patterns.
2. Identify, protect, and enhance natural areas to foster climate resilience, as well as
areas of vital habitat for safe species migration.
3. Identify, protect, and enhance community resilience to climate impacts, including
social, economic, and built-environment factors, which support adaptation to climate
impacts consistent with environmental justice.
The Washington State Department of Commerce recommends that jurisdictions structure
their Climate Plans around 11 key asset sectors, using implementable goals and policies
to guide their approach. These 11 sectors include:
1) Agriculture & Food Systems
2) Buildings & Energy
3) Cultural Resources & Practices
4) Zoning & Development
5) Economic Development
6) Emergency Management
7) Health & Well-being
8) Ecosystems
9) Transportation
10) Waste Management
11) Water Resources
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 12 of 40
Planning for these sectors with climate resilience in mind will ensure that the jurisdiction is
set up to pursue and implement measures that enhance beneficial opportunities such as
local food security and green job creation and address important areas that might not
necessarily be included in the County’s Hazard Mitigation Plan or an existing climate plan
or sustainability plan.
Alignment with Other Planning Efforts
Climate change impacts entire regions, causing similar hazards across neighboring towns
and communities. Therefore, it makes sense to align with other planning efforts developed
by nearby jurisdictions and organizations. Below are the plans that were reviewed as a
part of the creation of this Chapter:
GREATER EAST WENATCHEE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
As part of the climate resiliency planning process, a review and audit of the East
Wenatchee Comprehensive Plan were conducted to assess its alignment with climate
initiatives, goals, policies, and actions. This evaluation identified areas where climate
resilience could be strengthened and integrated into existing planning efforts. The findings
will help ensure that future updates to the Comprehensive Plan support a proactive and
coordinated approach to climate adaptation and mitigation.
DOUGLAS COUNTY COUNTYWIDE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
The Douglas County Comprehensive Plan provides overall direction for guiding land uses,
infrastructure development, and protecting the environment for areas of the county not
inside of an urban growth area. This plan incorporates adaptation strategies into land use
planning to support sustainable growth, manage development effectively, and reduce
vulnerability to future climate impacts.
EAST WENATCHEE SHORELINE MASTER PROGRAM (SMP)
The East Wenatchee waterbodies are managed by the Shoreline Master Plan, which
prioritizes ecology-friendly shoreline management and protecting the ecosystem. The
Climate Resiliency Chapter works in conjunction with the SMP by addressing gaps in
flood management practices, protecting riparian corridors, encouraging green
infrastructure to support resilience in the shoreline to climatic change stressors, etc.
DOUGLAS COUNTY HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN
The Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan sets mitigation goals to
reduce risks to life and property from environmental hazards such as droughts and
wildfires. The new Climate Resiliency Chapter for East Wenatchee builds on this
foundation through a crosswalk approach, ensuring alignment between hazard mitigation
efforts and climate adaptation strategies. By integrating these plans, the city can further
reduce vulnerabilities, enhance climate preparedness for emergencies, and strengthen
resilience in public infrastructure, creating a more coordinated and effective response to
evolving climate risks.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 13 of 40
CHELAN-DOUGLAS HEALTH DISTRICT CLIMATE AND PUBLIC
HEALTH ACTIVITIES
The Chelan-Douglas Health District Climate and Public Health Activities initiative
addresses climate-related health risks, such as extreme heat and wildfire smoke, through
monitoring, emergency preparedness, and community outreach. By integrating climate
adaptation with public health strategies, the district enhances resilience, protects
vulnerable populations, and strengthens local response efforts to evolving environmental
challenges.
Public Engagement
OVERVIEW
A public engagement process was designed to ensure that community voices played a
central role in shaping the Climate Resiliency Chapter. By gathering input from residents,
stakeholders, and local organizations, the process helped identify key climate concerns,
priorities, and opportunities for action. This collaborative approach ensures that the
strategies developed reflect the needs of East Wenatchee’s diverse population while
fostering local support for climate adaptation and resilience efforts.
The Climate Resiliency Chapter was introduced to the public through a targeted outreach
campaign, including flyers, posters, and social media posts promoting a climate survey
focused on community health and safety. City staff worked closely with local stakeholders
to expand outreach and encouraged participation. A dedicated webpage on the city’s
website provided comprehensive information on the plan’s purpose, key initiatives, and
opportunities for public engagement.
To guide the plan's development, a Climate Policy Advisory Team (CPAT) was formed,
which included a City Council member, two City Planning Commissioners, and other
community members. The CPAT held several meetings, and in-person "tabling" events
were organized to engage directly with residents about the planning process.
Promotional and engagement materials, such as social media advertisements and
documents at the events, often emphasized “health and safety” to align with the plan’s
goal of addressing and mitigating the risks posed by climate hazards. Outreach efforts
were also bilingual, with materials available in English and Spanish.
The Public Participation Plan and a complete, in-depth summary of the project’s public
engagement are included as an appendix to this Chapter.
CPAT
The main focus of the CPAT was to analyze the climate information gathered throughout
the process and provide recommendations on areas of focus. The advisors offered
recommendations on the following: goals with near-term due dates, actions that could be
implemented readily, strategies for longer-term actions, and a structure to update the
plan.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 14 of 40
With the help of city staff and consultants, the CPAT initiated and laid the groundwork for
the Climate Resiliency Plan. They provided input on the Public Participation Plan,
identified community assets and hazards, and contributed to the development of the
Climate Vulnerability Assessment. Additionally, they reviewed and advised on the goals
and policies outlined in this document.
SURVEY SUMMARY
An online community survey was conducted to explore preferences and planning
alternatives related to climate impacts. The survey included several questions designed to
gain a broad understanding of the community’s perspectives on and relationship to
climate change. Questions such as “How well do you feel you’re prepared for climate
hazards?” and “What action should the city pursue to increase climate resilience?” gather
a broad understanding of how East Wenatchee’s residents are feeling about climate
change.
Overall, the survey responses emphasize the importance of protecting parks, natural
areas, water resources, transportation infrastructure, and community facilities, particularly
for vulnerable populations. Key concerns include wildfire risks, poor air quality, drought,
and extreme heat, with less urgency around flooding or extreme precipitation. Residents
highlighted strategies like wildfire preparedness, stormwater management, water
conservation, and community collaboration to mitigate hazards. Additional priorities
include urban improvements, energy efficiency, proactive building codes, and public
education. While most respondents feel moderately prepared for climate hazards, there is
still a notable gap in readiness for some, underscoring the need for targeted resilience
measures.
IN-PERSON EVENTS
During the City’s Wings ‘N Wishes holiday event, the city had a booth dedicated to the
climate resiliency project to collect more feedback and engage with the public face-to-
face. This included two hands-on activities to let participants share their thoughts on how
to make the community more resilient. An estimated 200 people attended the event,
approximately one-third of whom were adults.
To understand how residents want their tax dollars spent on climate resilience, the city
conducted a “penny poll,” which allowed residents to “vote” on what solutions the city will
pursue. Overall, the vote's most popular choice was for Wildfire Smoke Protection,
followed by Public Awareness and Education and Drought-Resilient Landscaping.
Community members were also given stickers to identify on a map of East Wenatchee
and its UGA where they’ve noticed specific climate impacts, such as high-heat areas,
flood-prone areas, and drought-affected areas. However, only one person chose to
participate in the Climate Mapping Activity and placed a red dot, indicating a high heat
area, somewhere north of 27th St NE and N Baker Ave in the UGA.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 15 of 40
Climate Impacts Summary
Overview
To better understand how climate change and environmental hazards will impact East
Wenatchee in the coming decades, Cascadia Consulting Group (“Cascadia”) analyzed
both historical climate trends and future projections for the city. This analysis contributed
to the “Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA)” and informed the development of this
Climate Resiliency Chapter. East Wenatchee faces several climate-related hazards,
including extreme heat, wildfires and smoke, drought, and extreme precipitation and
flooding. While all of these hazards were considered, the most significant impacts are
expected from extreme heat and extreme precipitation and flooding, with the following key
climate-related changes anticipated:
• Extreme Heat: Rising annual average temperatures, with particularly sharp
increases in summer months. By the end of the century, summer temperatures
in Douglas County could rise by up to 11.4°F under a high-emission scenario.
This will lead to increased heat stress for residents, infrastructure, and
ecosystems.
• Wildfire and Smoke: Due to higher temperatures and prolonged drought
conditions, the frequency and severity of wildfires are expected to increase.
Wildfire activity in Central Washington is projected to quadruple by the 2040s,
leading to worsening air quality from smoke exposure.
• Drought: Decreasing summer precipitation will contribute to more frequent,
prolonged, and severe droughts. By mid-century, summer precipitation in
Douglas County could decline by 24%, worsening water scarcity issues for
agriculture, public health, and ecosystems.
• Extreme Precipitation and Flooding: While annual precipitation may
increase, it will be distributed unevenly, with more intense storms and heavier
rain events occurring in shorter timeframes. This will elevate flood risks,
infrastructure strain, and stormwater management challenges.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 16 of 40
METHODOLOGY
Cascadia conducted this assessment using a range of peer-reviewed climate models and
data sources, including:
• University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group’s Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information WA State Climate Summary
• The 5th National Climate Assessment’s Northwest Chapter
• Other relevant datasets and reports on regional climate trends
This climate assessment follows Washington’s Climate Planning Guidance, which is
aligned with national best practices, including the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit and the
American Planning Association’s (APA) guidelines. The projections in this summary are
primarily based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario,
which assumes continued high emissions and reflects the most likely trajectory under
current global policies.
The results of this assessment will inform East Wenatchee’s next steps in climate
resilience planning, particularly in hazard vulnerability and risk analysis.
Figure 1. Cascadia Consulting Climate Impact Summary
Idenitfy pirority
climate hazards
and impacts to
develop
understanding and
context of climate
impacts on local
sectors and assets.
Climate
Impacts
Assessment
Informed by
assessment
findings to
consider the
vulnerability
(exposure,
sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity)
of local assets and
systems to climate
exacerbated
hazards and
impacts.
Climate
Impact
Vulnerability
and Risk
Assessment
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 17 of 40
HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
The following sections provide an overview of key climate change impacts and how they
are expected to affect local sectors. This assessment aims to build a baseline awareness
to guide the city’s resilience planning.
Extreme Heat
The average temperature in the Northwest and Washington State has warmed over the
last century and is expected to warm at a faster rate through the next century and beyond.
The Northwest's average yearly temperature has increased by 2°F since the early 20th
century. Additionally, the coldest day of the year from 1986 to 2016 was 4.78°F warmer
compared to 1901 to 1960. In East Wenatchee, annual average temperatures have
increased approximately 0.26°F per decade since 1900 (Figure 2) (Office of the
Washington State Climatologist, 2023).
Figure 2. Annual Average Temperature East Wenatchee (Office of the Washington State
Climatologist, 2023)
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 18 of 40
By the 2080s, annual average temperature in the Northwest is projected to increase by
10.0°F under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) relative to the period 1950–1999 (Chang, et
al., 2023).
Figure 3. Summer Average Maximum Temperature Douglas County
Figure 3 shows the change in summer (June-August) average maximum temperature in
Douglas County for future 30-year periods compared to the 1980-2009 average. The
change in average summer maximum temperature is an indicator of heat stress for
people, ecosystems, and infrastructure (Raymond & Rogers, 2022). By mid-century
(2040-2069), average summer maximum temperature is expected to increase by 6.6°F in
the county. By end-century (2070-2099), average summer maximum temperature is
expected to increase by 11.4°F in the county.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Maximum
Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 19 of 40
Table 1. Extreme Heat Affected Sectors and Assets
Wildfire and Smoke
Wildfire smoke can be severe in the region, especially in highly populated areas of
Eastern Washington (Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfire activity is expected to continue to rise
in Central and Eastern Washington as temperatures increase. The area burned in Central
Washington forests is projected to quadruple by the 2040s, compared to the 1980-2006
average, under a moderate (RCP 6.0) greenhouse gas scenario (Chelan County, 2020).
Douglas County and East Wenatchee face significant wildfire risks due to vegetative fuel
loads and recurring droughts. Since 2006, the area has experienced 72 significant
wildfires, averaging 5.14 major wildfires per year, and the frequency is likely to increase
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food Systems
• Heat stress on crops and livestock, leading to reduced crop
yields and higher pest survival rates.
• Increased demand for irrigation.
Building and Energy
• Increased cooling demand during summer months.
• More variable hydroelectric generating capacity due to
changing streamflow, potentially leading to mismatch in
timing of electricity generation and demand.
Ecosystems
• Local extirpation or range shifts of species not able to
adapt to temperature extremes.
• Habitat shifts (e.g., forested areas converted to
scrublands).
• Increased stress on cold-water species in lakes and rivers.
Emergency Management
• Increased frequency and intensity of heatwave or heat
dome events.
• Strain on emergency services from rising need for
responses to heat-related health issues and travel
disruptions.
Health and Well-being
• Increase in heat-related deaths and illnesses, particularly
among older adults, low-income, and other sensitive
populations.
• Increase in water temperatures will alter timing, extent,
location and intensity of vibrio growth and harmful algal
blooms, increasing exposure and risk of waterborne
diseases.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 20 of 40
going forward (Douglas County, 2019). Table 2 presents the change in high fire danger
days in Douglas County, indicating a greater potential for wildfire activity if ignition
sources and ample fuels are present.
Table 2. Wildfire Danger in Douglas County
2010-2039 2040-2069
Wildfire Danger (T. Sheehan, et al., 2015)
Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.*
Douglas County Douglas County
Change in annual high fire danger days 6 days
(0 to 11 days)1
10 days
(5 to 18 days)
Douglas County, Washington. Likelihood of Climate and Fuel Conditions for
Wildfire
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 0.11(11%)
Figure 4. Wildfire Likelihood Douglas County
1 Represents the model’s median value for each indicator, while the range (in parentheses) indicates
10th and 90th percentile of values.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 21 of 40
Increased frequency, size, and severity (acres burned) of wildfires will also lead to
increased exposure to wildfire smoke and reduced air quality. Reduced air quality is
especially harmful to low-income individuals, unhoused individuals, farmworkers, older
adults, young children, pregnant people, and those with pre-existing conditions, such as
asthma, heart disease, and diabetes, among others (Chang, et al., 2023).
In 2023, there were 1,880 wildfires statewide, the second-highest total in state
history, and smoke affected Central Washington communities longer than elsewhere
(Washington State Governor's Office, 2024). East Wenatchee is one of the state’s most
affected communities by wildfire smoke, as shown by the WA DOH ‘Smoke scores’, which
are cumulative measurements of airborne fine particulate matter from wildfires between
2016 and 2022. One census tract in East Wenatchee reached 6,174, while the statewide
average was 2,289 (Washington State Governor's Office, 2024).
Wildfires, smoke, and reduced air quality will have varied impacts on local sectors and
their social, economic, and environmental assets in the coming decades. The table below
details how wildfire, smoke, and reduced air quality may impact sectors and their assets
in East Wenatchee. The following table uses information from the University of
Washington Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and county resources.
Table 3. Wildfire and Smoke-affected Sectors and Assets
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Building and Energy
• Risk to vital energy infrastructure, as wildfires can destroy
transmission lines, cutting off basic services for extended
periods of time.
Economic Development
• Increased disruptions of business continuity and lost
revenue and wages.
• Damage to key industries, including recreation, timber,
and agriculture sectors.
Ecosystems
• Increased erosion affecting land (forests, grasslands, etc.)
and local water sources. Sustainable management of
wildfires can promote biological diversity and healthy
ecosystems.
Emergency Management • Blocked evacuation routes, hindering emergency response
efforts and resource arrival.
Health and Well-Being
• Human health effects through loss of life, injury, and
mental health issues caused by extreme events or
displacement. Exposure to an extreme event - like a fire or
heat dome event - can create mental health challenges
even if displacement or other physical impacts don’t occur.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 22 of 40
Drought
In the Northwest, summer precipitation is projected to decline under all scenarios. In
addition, projected winter temperature increases will increase the likelihood that
precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack
(Frankson, et al., 2022). Declining summer precipitation and reduced snowpack will
contribute to more frequent, longer, and more severe regional drought conditions that
increase wildfire risk and decrease water availability (Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfires in the
region in 2020 and 2021 damaged water systems, disrupted electricity, and increased
sediment in waterways. These issues will worsen with more frequent and severe droughts
and wildfires.
In Douglas County, most drought events affect the region for at least two to three months
at a time. The USDA has recorded 585 total weeks of drought over the last 19 years, and
given the historic precedent set by past droughts, it is highly likely that East Wenatchee
will experience more season-long droughts in the future (Douglas County, 2019). July
2024 was the 4th driest July on record in Douglas County over the past 130 years
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration & National Integrated Drought
Information System, 2024). Drought will have varied impacts on local sectors and their
social, economic, and environmental assets in the coming decades. The table below
details how drought may impact sectors and their assets in East Wenatchee. The
following table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and
relevant city and county resources.
• Poor air quality exacerbating respiratory problems,
especially for older adults, young children, pregnant
people, and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Water Resources
• Water distribution infrastructure damage.
• Degraded water quality in reservoirs and increase in the
need for treatment and filtration.
Zoning and Development
• Increased damage to buildings, especially for homes
located in the wildland-urban interface and places where
development transitions into undeveloped areas.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 23 of 40
Table 4. Drought-Affected Sectors and Assets
Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
While precipitation in the Wenatchee Valley will continue to be greatly influenced by year-
to-year variability, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are
projected to increase across the region, as well as more winter precipitation falling as rain
rather than snow (Chelan County, 2020), (Chang et al., 2023). This will increase the
frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow (ROS) and rapid snowmelt flooding due to
warmer winter temperatures. While projections of annual precipitation are variable,
Douglas County is projected to experience an increase in total annual precipitation
through the mid- and end-century, based on an RCP 8.5 scenario (Table 4).
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food Systems
• Reduced water availability for crops, livestock, and
processing.
• Increased demand for irrigation due to longer and warmer
growing season.
Building and Energy • Lower energy production from hydroelectric dams.
Cultural Resources and
Practices
• Loss of locally grown, temperature-sensitive foods that are
culturally important (berries, shellfish, salmon, etc.).
Ecosystems
• Reduced water availability, stressed vegetation, and
diminished habitat quality.
• Increased vulnerability to wildfires through ecosystem
stress and increase of fuel load (e.g., grassland dries out
and increases tinder for large wildfire).
Emergency Management
• Heightened demand for emergency services to enhance
planning, preparation, and response efforts in addressing
water shortages.
Health and Well-being
• Increased erosion, dust storms, environmental
degradation, and heightened wildfire risks affecting
exposed and/or sensitive populations.
• Reduced outdoor recreation opportunities relying on
consistent water supply and snowpack, such as rafting or
tubing.
Water Resources
• Degraded water quality from reduced dilution of pollutants
in rivers and streams.
• Increased need for voluntary or mandatory water
conservation measures and usage restrictions.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 24 of 40
Table 5. Annual Precipitation Douglas County
2050-2079 2070-2099
Total Annual Precipitation (Salathé,
E.P. et al., 2010) Accessed via Climate
Mapping for a Resilient Washington.
Douglas County Douglas County
Percent change in average total
annual precipitation for future 30-
year periods compared to the 1980-
2009 average.
19.1% (12.6 to 28.4%) 24.7% (12.9 to 37%)
Seasonal precipitation projections are mixed for jurisdictions East of the Cascades;
however, a majority of models project increases in precipitation for winter, spring, and fall
precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation. Figure 4 shows projected change in
total summer and winter precipitation (%) for the region east of the Cascades through
mid- and end-century. The figure presents precipitation projections from several climate
models, with the average value represented by the line in the middle of each box. The
high emissions scenario projects an 8.5% increase in winter precipitation in the 2050s and
a 6.3% decrease in the summer through the 2050s (Rogers, 2021). Through the 2080s,
winter precipitation is projected to increase by 14.6%, while summer precipitation is
expected to decrease by 9.9% (Rogers, 2021).
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 25 of 40
Figure 5. Projected change in Summer and Winter precipitation (%) for areas east of the
Cascades in the 2050s and 2080s relative to 1950-1999 for a high emission scenario (Rogers,
2021)
These precipitation changes, especially increased precipitation in winter months, will likely
result in an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in East Wenatchee, with the
most vulnerable areas including the convergence of the Wenatchee River with other rivers
and the headwaters (Chelan County, 2020). Douglas County, including East Wenatchee,
is likely to experience flash flooding in low-lying areas due to poor drainage and land use
(e.g., development or suburban sprawl).
Extreme precipitation and flooding will have varied impacts on local sectors and their
social, economic, and environmental assets in the coming decades. The table below
details how extreme precipitation and flooding may impact sectors and their assets in
East Wenatchee. The following table uses information from the University of Washington
Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW)
webtool and other city and county resources.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 26 of 40
Table 6. Extreme Precipitation and Flooding-Affected Sectors and Assets
The Hazards Assessment for East Wenatchee outlines the anticipated climate change
impacts that the region will face in the coming decades, with particular emphasis on
extreme heat, wildfires and smoke, drought, and extreme precipitation. These changes
are expected to significantly affect local sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, and
water resources, while presenting a range of challenges and risks to public safety,
infrastructure, and ecosystems.
Extreme heat will continue to intensify, with temperatures projected to rise by up to 11.4°F
by the end of the century, which will exacerbate heat stress on crops and livestock,
increase water demands, and raise energy consumption for cooling. Simultaneously, the
increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires, coupled with the rising levels of wildfire
smoke, pose risks to air quality, health, and local infrastructure, particularly in areas with
dense populations and vulnerable communities. Furthermore, drought conditions,
exacerbated by reduced snowpack and less precipitation, will strain water resources,
agriculture, and energy production, contributing to further wildfire risks.
Extreme precipitation and flooding are also expected to worsen, with changes in
precipitation patterns leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. These
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Cultural Resources and
Practices
• Minimal to complete damage of community assets, such as
community gardens, historic buildings, and local
businesses.
Economic Development • Increased insurance premiums due to more
extreme/frequent flooding.
Ecosystems
• Loss of river shore and riparian habitat to flooding and
erosion, where sufficient space for habitat migration is not
available.
Emergency Management
• Altered streamflow patterns, sedimentation, and nutrient
runoff can disrupt aquatic habitats and affect fish
populations and water quality.
Health and Well-being
• Disrupted essential services such as emergency response
and medical services due to impacted roads and
infrastructure.
Transportation • Heightened health impacts such as injury, spread of
disease, respiratory affects, and mental health effects.
Water Resources
• Damaged roads from flooding, landslides, and erosion,
leading to higher maintenance costs and disrupting
essential services.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 27 of 40
changes, along with increased erosion and damaged infrastructure, will place additional
strain on emergency management, water quality, and local economies, particularly in
areas prone to flash flooding.
In conclusion, the Hazards Assessment highlights the urgent need for proactive resilience
planning in East Wenatchee to address these impacts of climate change. By
understanding and preparing for these changes, the city can better safeguard its
communities, infrastructure, and natural resources from the growing threats posed by a
changing climate.
Exhibit A
Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
Climate vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of a system, asset, or community to the
negative effects of climate change. It is typically defined by the combination of exposure to
climate change impacts (e.g., the extent to which a system will experience these impacts), the
sensitivity of communities or assets to climate change (e.g., how vulnerable an asset is to
such changes), and the community’s capacity to adapt to these changes. The Climate
Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) assesses the vulnerability of East Wenatchee's physical and
social assets to heat and flooding, two key climate risks for the area. The full CVA can be
found in the appendix.
ALIGNMENT WITH OTHER PLANNING EFFORTS
The CVA will complement other regional planning efforts, such as the Chelan-Douglas
Health-Focused Climate Vulnerability Assessment, the Douglas County Community Wildfire
Protection Plan, and the Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP).
The Chelan-Douglas Health-Focused CVA, currently in development, takes a long-term view
spanning the next 50 to 100 years, and includes a deep focus on the health impacts of
climate change to frontline or vulnerable populations. One primary goal of the Chelan-
Douglas Health-Focused CVA is to support action by community-based organizations
(CBOs), local government, and healthcare systems.
Douglas County Community Wildfire Protection Plan
The intent of this document aims to provide a county-wide wildfire hazard assessment,
identify at-risk communities, and offer recommendations for actions to reduce wildfire risks. It
serves as a foundational resource for smaller communities in Douglas County that want to
create their own specific Community Wildfire Protection Plans.
Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP)
The 2019 Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) aims to reduce
the county's vulnerability to natural hazards like droughts, floods, and wildfires. It includes
hazard profiles and risk assessments for local areas, such as East Wenatchee, but does not
assess the risk of extreme heat.
Informed by these associated planning efforts, the CVA focuses on addressing gaps in
understanding not yet covered by existing initiatives. Through focusing on specific assets and
communities in East Wenatchee exposed to heat and flooding impacts, the full CVA report
helps provide detailed, city-specific insights into how the community may be affected by
climate change in the future.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 29 of 40
Why Assess Climate Change Vulnerability?
East Wenatchee is already facing the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures,
droughts, and changing precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) 2023 report stresses the need for immediate action to mitigate and adapt to
these changes. The Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) identifies the risks of heat and
flooding in East Wenatchee, showing how they could affect the city's systems. This CVA will
be used to develop and prioritize Climate Resiliency Chapter goals and policies to enhance
climate resilience in the city.
Climate Vulnerability Framework
The full Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) evaluates the exposure, sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity of key assets and communities in East Wenatchee. This analysis provides
critical information that will support the goals, policies, and actions aimed at reducing the risks
of climate change and enhancing the city's resilience. The CVA assesses vulnerabilities
within the city limits and urban growth areas (UGA), providing maps that highlight areas with
varying levels of risk. For a more detailed analysis of specific locations and hazards, refer to
the full CVA report. The following section provides brief definitions of key terms and outlines
the theories and concepts that will be used throughout this document.
• Vulnerability: The state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated
with environmental and social change and from the absence of the capacity to adapt.
• Climate hazards: The climate-related physical events or trends that may cause
damage and loss, such as floods, extreme heat, and wildfire.
• Climate risks: The potential impacts that climate change could have on a system,
which depend on its exposure to climate factors and its sensitivity to those changes. To
characterize risks, this assessment looks at:
o Exposure: The degree to which a system is exposed to climate hazards. For
example, areas in towns and cities that are in a 100-year floodplain will have
higher exposure to inland flooding impacts.
o Sensitivity: The degree to which that system is likely to be affected by climate
change. For example, older adults are less able to regulate their body
temperatures and, thus, more physically sensitive to extreme heat than younger
people.
• Adaptive Capacity: The ability to moderate the damage of, cope with, or adjust to
climate change. Having access to a vehicle and health insurance, for example,
increases people’s adaptive capacity to manage health impacts from extreme heat,
smoke, and any injuries related to climate hazards (Figure 6).
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 30 of 40
Figure 6. East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Definitions, Source: Cascadia Consulting Group
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 31 of 40
East Wenatchee’s Climate Risks: Heat and Flooding
East Wenatchee faces significant risks from rising temperatures and extreme heat, as well as
from flooding due to increased precipitation. Both of these climate impacts are expected to
intensify, challenging the health, social, and economic stability of the city. Vulnerable
populations, such as low-income households, older adults, individuals with preexisting health
conditions, and communities with language barriers, are at an elevated risk of experiencing
severe effects from these climate risks.
WARMING TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME HEAT
East Wenatchee is significantly vulnerable to extreme heat, with rising temperatures
intensifying health, social, and economic challenges. Certain populations are at a higher risk
of experiencing impacts from extreme heat, including low-income households, older adults,
individuals with existing health conditions, and communities with language barriers or
immigration concerns. Existing efforts that enhance resilience to heat impacts include policies
for affordable housing, improved transportation and mobility, overall infrastructure
investments, expansion and services related to outdoor recreation, and social services that
protect vulnerable groups from heat impacts.
Physical assets in the city like older buildings, aging transportation infrastructure, and areas
with high impervious surfaces are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat due to poor
insulation and the urban heat island effect. While key community facilities, such as schools
and health centers, help support community resilience to climate impacts, ongoing challenges
exist in upgrading infrastructure to withstand and recover from heat impacts. Table 7
summarizes the heat vulnerability assessment scoring based on the results of the exposure,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity analysis in this CVA.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 32 of 40
Table 7. Heat Vulnerability Assessment At-A-Glance for the City Limits and UGA
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Co
m
m
u
n
i
t
y
V
u
l
n
e
r
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Children and older
adults
Low-income
households
Health burden
index
Tree canopy
deficiency
Physical Asset
Vulnerability
EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING
East Wenatchee is moderately vulnerable to extreme precipitation and flooding, which are
expected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change. Extreme storms are
expected to overwhelm drainage systems and cause urban floods, putting people and
property at risk. Certain populations are at a higher risk of experiencing impacts from extreme
precipitation and flooding, including low-income households, older adults, individuals with
chronic health conditions, and those with limited English proficiency. Existing efforts to
enhance resilience include infrastructure investments and policies aimed at improving
drainage systems, public health services, and flood preparedness, but challenges remain in
addressing disparities and ensuring flood protection for vulnerable communities.
Physical assets in East Wenatchee, such as transportation networks, older buildings, and
areas with high percentages of impervious surfaces (Ie. highly developed urban zones), are
vulnerable to flooding due to inadequate stormwater infrastructure and floodplain buffers.
While key community facilities, like schools and health centers, help support resilience,
ongoing efforts are needed to upgrade systems and improve flood protection to ensure the
resilience of vulnerable populations and assets. Table 8 summarizes the flood vulnerability
assessment scoring based on the results of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
analysis in this CVA.
Icon Key: The number of icons in each cell correspond to the scores below
Low Low/Moderate Moderate Moderate/High High
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 33 of 40
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Co
m
m
u
n
i
t
y
Vu
l
n
e
r
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Children and older
adults
Low-income
households
Health burden index
Tree canopy
deficiency
Physical Asset
Vulnerability
Conclusion
The East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment highlights the city’s growing risks
from extreme heat and flooding. Vulnerable populations—older adults, children, low-income
households, and those with health conditions—face heightened exposure, while infrastructure
is also at risk.
Rising summer temperatures will increase heat-related health concerns, particularly in areas
with low tree canopy and high impervious surfaces. Expanding tree cover, improving cooling
access, and enhancing building efficiency can help mitigate these effects.
More frequent heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt may overwhelm stormwater systems,
damage infrastructure, and displace residents. Strengthening stormwater management, green
infrastructure, and floodplain protections will be key to reducing flood risks.
Ongoing efforts, such as updates to local plans and regional initiatives, support climate
adaptation. By integrating this assessment into the City’s Climate Resiliency Chapter, East
Wenatchee can establish clear policies and actions to enhance resilience.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 34 of 40
GOALS AND POLICIES
The goals and policies outlined in the East Wenatchee Climate Resiliency Chapter aim to
strengthen the city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change,
particularly extreme heat and flooding. These goals focus on enhancing community
resilience, protecting vulnerable populations, and ensuring the long-term sustainability of
physical assets.
Framed under each of the priority sectors, the policies provide actionable strategies to
avoid the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance resilience. These strategies
address the city's most pressing climate risks, support infrastructure improvements, and
promote equitable solutions for all residents. By implementing these goals and policies,
East Wenatchee seeks to build a more resilient future, prepared for the challenges of a
changing climate.
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SYSTEMS
GOAL 1: Support the resilience of East Wenatchee’s agricultural sector by
promoting climate-adaptive farming practices, protecting agricultural assets
from climate risks, and enhancing local food security through partnerships
and community engagement.
CR-1 Support voluntary adoption of water-efficient irrigation, soil health
practices, and climate-resilient crop varieties through the promotion of
education, technical assistance, and partnerships with agricultural
organizations, with an emphasis on engaging small-scale, minority-owned,
and historically underserved farm operations.
CR-2 Promote farmers' markets, community-supported agriculture (CSA)
programs, and farm-to-school initiatives to strengthen access to local,
climate-friendly foods.
CR-3 Work with agricultural producers and packing facilities located in the UGA
to identify opportunities for infrastructure improvements, such as energy-
efficient cooling systems and flood-resistant storage.
CR-4 Partner with conservation groups to promote native plantings, pollinator
habitats, and integrated pest management to maintain healthy, climate-
resilient orchards and vineyards.
CR-5 Support local efforts to reduce food waste through composting
programs, food donation initiatives, and partnerships with food banks
to enhance food security.
CR-6 Support the local agricultural sectors' efforts to adapt to changing
climate conditions and capitalize on sustainable business
opportunities.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 35 of 40
BUILDINGS AND ENERGY
GOAL 2: Enhance the resilience and sustainability of infrastructure to
address the challenges posed by extreme weather events and climate
change. Ensure the continuity of services and protect critical facilities from
climate risks, such as flooding, heat, and extreme weather conditions, by
prioritizing sustainable, resilient design and materials. This includes energy-
efficient buildings, flood-resistant and heat-resistant infrastructure, and
renewable energy systems with climate resilience features, ensuring the
city's infrastructure can withstand, recover from, and maintain functionality
during climate impacts.
CR -7 Encourage backup power generation and energy storage requirements in
designing new electric utility facilities to ensure resilience and
sustainability.
CR-8 Encourage public facility remodeling and construction to prioritize energy
efficiency and climate resilience, with a focus on improving facilities that
serve overburdened and climate-vulnerable populations. Require critical
community buildings to be designed to withstand extreme weather
conditions using sustainable, resilient materials.
CR-9 Encourage utility infrastructure guidelines to require flood-resistant and
heat-resistant materials in critical installations, ensuring continuity of
services during extreme weather events.
CR-10 Establish policies prioritizing using underground and/or resilient
infrastructure materials in new utility projects to withstand environmental
stressors.
CR-11 Support standards for renewable energy facilities such as wind farms,
hydroelectric dams, and solar installations, requiring flood-resistant
foundations and energy storage systems to enhance climate resilience.
CR-12 Update road construction standards to encourage permeable materials,
bioswales, and vegetative buffers for flood resilience and improved
stormwater management.
CR-13 Update parking standards to encourage permeable pavement, green
infrastructure, and landscape buffers to improve stormwater management
and reduce heat island effects.
CR-14 Promote building codes to require renewable energy sources and
extreme weather resilience in new telecommunications facilities to
maintain service reliability during climate-related emergencies, where
feasible.
CR-15 Incorporate climate risk assessment criteria in site selection for capital
facilities to avoid high-risk areas and ensure facilities are designed for
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 36 of 40
long-term resilience.
GOAL 3: Promote sustainable building and site design practices that
minimize stormwater runoff and pollution by incorporating low-impact
development (LID) techniques, such as soil preservation, tree retention,
compact development, and permeable surfaces.
CR-16 Require the design and construction of commercial and residential
buildings and their surrounding sites to reduce and treat stormwater runoff
and pollution.
CR-17 Encourage commercial and industrial developments to incorporate green
infrastructure and resilient design principles where feasible. Promote the
use of permeable surfaces, drought-tolerant landscaping, and energy-
efficient building materials to enhance resilience to climate impacts.
CULTURAL RESOURCES AND PRACTICES
GOAL 4: Strengthen the resilience of historic and cultural sites by
integrating climate-adaptive strategies, fostering community partnerships,
and implementing nature-based solutions to protect these assets from
extreme weather and environmental hazards.
CR-18 Protect significant historic sites prone to floods or other hazards
worsened by climate change.
CR-19 Partner with faith-based organizations and community groups to
develop emergency plans that safeguard historic and cultural sites from
extreme weather events.
CR-20 Promote preservation efforts that integrate climate resilience, such as
stabilizing soil erosion at archaeological sites and implementing adaptive
reuse strategies for historic downtown buildings.
CR-21 Incorporate nature-based solutions, such as rain gardens and permeable
surfaces, at recreational facilities and other historic sites to manage
stormwater and reduce flood risks.
ZONING AND DEVELOPMENT
GOAL 4: Prioritize the integration of climate-resilient parameter 2 in the
planning of easements, road dedications, structures, and stormwater
drainage facilities.
CR-22 Protect and restore natural areas to support local agriculture, healthy
ecosystems, and water resources while helping communities adapt to
2 Climate-resilient parameter is a feature or factor that helps people, systems, or environments withstand, adapt to, or recover from the
impacts of climate change. Such parameters could include requiring permeable surfaces, green infrastructure (e.g., bioswales, rain
gardens), and flood-proof construction measures to mitigate climate hazards such as flooding, and heatwaves.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 37 of 40
climate change.
CR-23 Implement a regional green space connectivity plan that includes climate-
adaptive measures such as shaded areas for heat mitigation, water-
efficient landscaping, and flood-resilient green spaces to enhance
ecological corridors and mitigate climate impacts.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GOAL 6: Promote a resilient and diverse local economy in accordance with
the economic development chapter by supporting businesses, workforce
development, and infrastructure investments that enhance climate
adaptability and long-term economic sustainability.
CR-24 Encourage climate-adaptive infrastructure improvements in commercial
and industrial areas as well as improvements to site development to
reduce risks from extreme weather events and ensure business continuity,
particularly, in areas prone to flooding, extreme heat, and/or fire/wildfire,
and where climate-related economic disruptions disproportionately affect
overburdened or historically marginalized workers and neighborhoods.
CR-25 Partner with regional agencies to develop and invest in workforce training
programs focused on wildfire prevention, flood mitigation, and emergency
response to enhance community preparedness and resilience.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
GOAL 7: Integrate climate resilience into long-term planning by requiring
environmental reviews to assess and mitigate climate risks, ensuring
sustainable and adaptive development for East Wenatchee’s future.
CR-26 Ensure that environmental reviews of proposed master plans include local
and regional climate risk and vulnerability assessments, addressing
impacts such as flooding, drought, extreme temperatures, and habitat
disruption. Mitigation strategies are required to incorporate adaptive
measures to address climate impacts and promote sustainable
development.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 38 of 40
CR-27 Factor climate impacts into the planning of operations and coordination of
preparedness, response, and recovery activities among first-responders
and partners, including public health, law enforcement, fire, school, and
emergency medical services (EMS) personnel.
HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
GOAL 8: Promote sustainable industrial development that protects public
health and well-being by encouraging renewable energy use, water
conservation, and emissions reduction, while incentivizing eco-friendly
technologies and green infrastructure to enhance climate and community
resilience.
CR-28 Encourage industrial development that integrates sustainable practices,
including renewable energy use, water conservation, and emissions
reduction. Incentivize industries to adopt eco-friendly technologies and
green infrastructure to minimize environmental impact and enhance
climate resilience.
GOAL 9: Foster healthy, resilient neighborhoods by incorporating green
infrastructure, energy-efficient design, and natural landscaping to reduce
environmental stressors while supporting affordable housing initiatives.
CR-29 Enhance quality of life in residential neighborhoods by integrating green
buffers, natural landscaping, and vegetation to mitigate noise, air pollution,
and urban heat effects.
CR-30 Support energy-efficient building materials and designs to reduce
exposure to environmental stressors and improve overall neighborhood
resilience while balancing these measures with affordable housing
initiatives.
GOAL 10: Enhance community resilience to climate conditions by expanding
access facilities that prioritize high-risk neighborhoods and promote health
preparedness.
CR-31 Promote community preparedness from the impacts of climate-
exacerbated hazards by prioritizing focus on overburdened communities
and ensuring that the most vulnerable residents do not bear
disproportionate health impacts.
CR-32 Research the need for cooling centers in vulnerable areas and develop a
citywide network of climate resilience hubs and cooling centers in heat-
vulnerable areas if necessary.
GOAL 11: Expand equitable access to safe indoor environments during
extreme climate conditions by leveraging community assets, including
school facilities, and enhancing public infrastructure to promote health and
well-being.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 39 of 40
CR-33 Collaborate with local school districts to utilize school gymnasiums and
multi-purpose rooms as accessible indoor activity spaces during high heat
or smoke events, prioritizing community health and continuity of social
connection.
CR-34 Support the development and promotion of indoor public recreation
programs and facilities that offer climate-safe spaces for all residents, with
a focus on youth, seniors, and other vulnerable populations.
CR-35 Provide incentives and technical support for public and private facilities to
improve indoor air quality and temperature regulation, including air
filtration systems and energy-efficient cooling technologies, to serve as
safe havens during climate events.
ECOSYSTEMS
GOAL 12: Enhance urban ecosystems by expanding and maintaining street
trees and native vegetation to improve climate resilience, support
biodiversity, and provide environmental and community benefits such as
shade, air quality improvement, and stormwater management.
CR-36 Increase street tree planting in new and existing developments, prioritizing
areas with low canopy coverage and overburdened communities that are
disproportionately affected by urban heat and air pollution, to reduce heat
stress and improve public health.
CR-37 Develop a street tree list that uses species that are drought tolerant,
climate adaptive and less impactful to underground infrastructure.
CR-38 Partner with local organizations and agencies to ensure proper tree care
and maximize the long-term health and benefits of urban trees.
CR-39 Enhance the resilience of parks and recreational trails by assessing and
addressing climate hazards and impacts.
GOAL 13: Protect and restore East Wenatchee’s riparian areas, shorelines,
and natural ecosystems to enhance climate resilience, reduce flooding
impacts, and support biodiversity.
CR-40 Support tree planting, shrub-steppe preservation, and the use of native
vegetation to enhance habitat connectivity, reduce urban heat, and
strengthen ecosystem resilience.
CR-41 To support a climate-resilient and disaster-ready community, the City of
East Wenatchee will align its Climate Resiliency Chapter with the Douglas
County Emergency Management Plan, ensuring a unified approach to
post-disaster recovery and debris management.
TRANSPORTATION
GOAL 14: Ensure that the local transportation system — including
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 40 of 40
infrastructure, routes, and travel modes — is able to withstand and recover
quickly from the impacts of extreme weather events and other hazards
exacerbated by climate change.
CR-42 Improve street connectivity and walkability in accordance with the
transportation chapter by including sidewalks and street crossings to serve
as potential evacuation routes.
CR-43 Identify and map transportation infrastructure that is vulnerable to
repeated floods, landslides, and other natural hazards, and designate
alternative travel routes for critical transportation corridors when roads
must be closed.
WASTE MANAGEMENT
GOAL 15: Improve disaster recovery and public safety by establishing
efficient debris management strategies that minimize risks from fire,
flooding, and other hazards.
CR-44 Develop and implement a strategy to expedite management of debris
(e.g., downed tree limbs and buildings blocking roads and streams) after a
disaster incident to reduce the risks of subsequent fire, flood, injury, and
disease vectors.
CR-45 Collaborate with county, state, and federal agencies to establish
procedures to secure funding, resources, and personnel for post-disaster
debris removal efforts.
CR-46 Discourage the dumping of yard waste in ravines or adjacent areas by
expanding public education on proper disposal methods and increasing
access to permitted yard waste drop-off locations, particularly in
neighborhoods near sensitive environmental areas.
GOAL 16: Prevent environmental hazards and improve neighborhood
resilience by promoting proper yard waste management and discouraging
illegal dumping practices.
CR-47 Reduce fire, flood, and pest risks by discouraging the disposal of yard
waste in ravines, vacant lots, and residential backyards. Support
community access to legal yard waste disposal facilities and promote
awareness of proper green waste management through educational
outreach and enforcement strategies.
Exhibit A
Greater East Wenatchee Area Comprehensive Plan – 2019
Page 41 of 40
WATER RESOURCES
GOAL 17: Encourage climate-resilient development and land use by
promoting sustainable water resource management, including adaptive
stormwater solutions, water conservation, and infrastructure that protects
and enhances local watersheds.
CR-48 Require shoreline developments to incorporate adaptive designs that
account for increased storm frequency and erosion. Prioritize green
infrastructure, such as natural buffers and permeable surfaces, to
enhance resilience and protect shoreline ecosystems.
CR-49 Launch a community outreach program focused on sustainable water
management and flood resilience, encouraging property owners to adopt
climate-adaptive landscaping, rainwater harvesting, and green
infrastructure to reduce runoff, protect local watersheds, and minimize
flood risks.
CR-50 Coordinate with the East Wenatchee Water District to understand how the
municipal water system maintains adequate pressure during a major
wildfire event (e.g., multiple structures burning) and how it will look under
current and projected drought conditions.
CR-51 Sustainably manage water resources in East Wenatchee in the face of
climate change through smart irrigation, stormwater management,
preventative maintenance, water conservation and wastewater reuse,
plant selection, and landscape management.
CR-52 Promote water conservation by encouraging drought-tolerant landscaping,
rainwater harvesting, and efficient irrigation systems in new developments
and retrofits. Explore incentive programs to consider for implementation
that would be available for property owners to implement water-saving
measures, reducing overall demand on municipal water supplies and
enhancing long-term resilience to drought conditions.
Exhibit A
The East Wenatchee Climate Element is supported with funding
from Washington’s Climate Commitment Act. The CCA supports
Washington’s climate action efforts by putting cap-and-invest
dollars to work reducing climate pollution, creating jobs, and
improving public health. Information about the CCA is available
at www.climate.wa.gov.
Memorandum
To Curtis Lillquist
City of East Wenatchee
From Abigail Lambert & Nicole Gutierrez
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc.
Date 10/10/2024
Subj Climate Impacts Assessment Summary
Overview
This climate impacts summary discusses historical trends and future climate projections to
provide a foundational understanding of how future changes in the climate and associated hazards
will affect East Wenatchee now and in the future. Without ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction measures across the region and globe, East Wenatchee is expected to experience the
following impacts (detailed in the Summary of Climate Impacts section):
• Extreme Heat: Higher annual average temperatures, with especially high temperature
increases during the summer months (up to a 11.4°F increase by the end of the century).
• Drought and Snowpack: Declining summer precipitation and increased winter
temperatures resulting in reduced snowpack, leading to more frequent, longer, and severe
regional droughts.
• Wildfire, Smoke, and Air Quality: Increased wildfire activity due to extreme heat and
heighted drought, resulting in increased smoke and poor air quality.
• Extreme Precipitation and Flooding: Increased flooding due to rapid snow melt and more
frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, such as long-duration rain events.
The purpose of the climate impacts summary is to identify historical and projected climate impacts
in order to support the climate gaps and opportunities assessment of East Wenatchee’s
Comprehensive Plan and inform the City’s climate vulnerability assessment (CVA). These
components will ultimately inform the Climate Resilience Sub-element in the Comprehensive Plan.
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 2
Legislative Background
WA House Bill (HB) 1181
The Washington Growth Management Act (GMA) was amended in 2023 under Washington House
Bill (HB) 1181, requiring cities and counties to integrate climate policies1 into comprehensive plan
updates. For the city of East Wenatchee, these required policy changes must address climate
impacts and increase resilience across local sectors. Jurisdictions must adopt climate policies
through a framework consistent with the Department of Commerce’s (“Commerce”) Climate
Planning Guidance (Washington Department of Commerce, 2023).
Climate Planning Guidance in WA
To comply with State guidance, the first step in developing a Climate Resilience Sub-element is
exploring climate impacts most prevalent to your community following Commerce’s Resilience
Guidance framework (Washington Department of Commerce, 2023). This guidance integrates the
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit's framework and best practices from various organizations such as
the Association of Washington Cities (AWC), Municipal Research and Services Center of
Washington (MRSC), and the American Planning Association (APA). Commerce’s framework offers
a flexible approach for jurisdictions to incorporate the latest available climate science, assess
local impacts, and consider resilience policy options. This climate impacts summary mirrors
Commerce’s “Climate Element Workbook” Step 3 Task 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, with the goal of
exploring how expected changes in the climate could exacerbate natural hazards (e.g., droughts,
floods, etc.) and impact critical assets and sectors (e.g., ecosystems, infrastructure, public health,
etc.).
Climate Impacts Assessment
Methodology
To perform this climate impacts assessment, Cascadia Consulting Group (“Cascadia”) used a
variety of established and peer-reviewed resources—including the University of Washington’s
Climate Impacts Group’s Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington, NOAA National Centers for
Environmental Information WA State Climate Summary, the 5th National Climate Assessment’s
Northwest Chapter, and other relevant studies and datasets—to identify observed and projected
climate trends relevant for East Wenatchee. This climate impacts assessment will inform the next
phase of hazard vulnerability and risk analysis by building considerations for future changes in
hazard risk due to climate change.
1 Climate resilience policies are required for all jurisdictions planning under the GMA. GHG emission
reduction policies are only required for 11 of the fastest growing counties and cities within them.
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 3
Throughout the climate impacts and vulnerability assessment process, Cascadia will work with
East Wenatchee to come to a shared agreement and understanding of the climate impacts and
hazards most relevant to the city to determine priority assets that may be exposed to climate
change.
Climate Drivers and Variability
Climate change refers to the long-term shifting of environmental conditions and weather patterns .
Climate change is primarily caused by human activity, particularly the emission of GHGs from
burning fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric GHGs, notably carbon emissions, have driven the
increase in land and ocean temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, leading to various
biophysical impacts such as more frequent and intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms, droughts,
melting glaciers, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification (Marvel, et al., 2023).
Natural feedback processes like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation contribute to variations in air temperature, extreme weather events, precipitation, and
ocean conditions over interannual and interdecadal periods. However, the rate of climate change
caused by human activities far exceeds any natural variability from these processes (Perlwitz,
Knutson, Kossin, & LeGrande, 2017).
Climate Scenarios and Projection Models
The rise in GHG emissions in the atmosphere has already caused the climate to change
significantly, as described above. To understand and project future climate conditions and
impacts, models are used to simulate how climate hazards will increase and intensify over the next
century. These models rely on a variety of scenarios that incorporate factors such as future land
use, population growth, technological innovation, and global GHG emission levels. One of the
frameworks commonly used in these models is the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP),
which outlines different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories.
Idenitfy priority
climate hazards and
impacts to develop
understanding and
context of climate
impacts on local
sectors and assets.
Climate
Impacts
Assessment
Informed by
assessment findings
to consider the
vulnerability
(exposure, sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity)
of local assets and
systems to climate
exacerbated hazards
and impacts.
Climate
Impact
Vulnerability
and Risk
Assessment
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 4
This climate impact summary will draw from two generations of climate models: Coupled Model
Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) 5 and CMIP 6. CMIP 5 uses Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) to project greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, while CMIP 6 uses Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which consider various climate policy scenarios in addition to
GHG concentration levels.
This climate impacts summary will primarily use CMIP 5 and Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 8.5. RCP 8.5 represents a” business-as-usual” scenario in which emissions
continue at their current trajectory. RCP 8.5 is derived from multiple models and is consistent
across most climate projections. It is a high emissions scenario and projects a global temperature
warming of about 4.3˚C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperatures.
This climate impacts summary primarily uses RCP 8.5 because it represents the most realistic
emissions trajectory that we are currently on. When RCP 8.5 data wasn’t available for priority
climate impacts, this climate impacts summary relied on other scenarios such as RCP 6.0
(moderate emissions scenario) or SSP 5-8.5 (high emissions scenario using CMIP 6).
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 5
Summary of Climate Impacts
The following sections provide an overview of key climate change impacts and how they are
expected to affect local sectors. This assessment aims to build a baseline awareness to guide the
city’s resilience planning within the Climate Resilience Sub-element.
Extreme Heat
Average temperature in the Northwest and Washington state has warmed over the last century and
is expected to warm at a faster rate through the next century and beyond. The Northwest's average
yearly temperature has increased by 2°F since the early 20th century. Additionally, the coldest day
of the year from 1986 to 2016 was 4.78°F warmer compared to 1901 to 1960. In East Wenatchee,
annual average temperatures have increased approximately 0.26°F per decade since 1900 (Figure
1) (Office of the Washington State Climatologist, 2023).
Figure 1. Annual Average Temperature East Wenatchee (Office of the Washington State Climatologist,
2023)
By the 2080s, annual average temperature in the Northwest is projected to increase by 10.0°F
under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) relative to the period 1950–1999 (Chang, et al., 2023).
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 6
Figure 2 shows the change in summer (June-August) average maximum temperature in Douglas
County for future 30-year periods compared to the 1980-2009 average. The change in average
summer maximum temperature is an indicator of heat stress for people, ecosystems, an d
infrastructure (Raymond & Rogers, 2022). By mid-century (2040-2069), average summer maximum
temperature is expected to increase by 6.6°F in the county. By end-century (2070-2099), average
summer maximum temperature is expected to increase by 11.4°F in the county.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Maximum Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 7
Figure 2. Summer Average Maximum Temperature Douglas County (Raymond & Rogers, 2022)
Extreme heat will have varied impacts on local sectors, such as emergency management, and their
social, economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. Extreme heat events like the 2021
heat dome will likely continue, causing cascading impacts on residents, businesses, and systems.
The 2021 heat dome, for instance, spiked heat-related emergency calls, disrupted transit and
highways, and caused temporary business closures throughout the state.
The table below details how extreme heat may impact sectors, as identified by Commerce’s
Planning Guidance, and their assets in East Wenatchee (Washington Department of Commerce,
2023). The following table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and
county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food
Systems
• Heat stress on crops and livestock, leading to reduced crop
yields and higher pest survival rates.
• Increased demand for irrigation.
Building and Energy • Increased cooling demand during summer months.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Maximum Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 8
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
• More variable hydroelectric generating capacity due to
changing streamflow, potentially leading to mismatch in
timing of electricity generation and demand.
Cultural Resources and
Practices
• Increasing water temperature in streams and rivers affects
salmon and other culturally significant resources and
species.
Ecosystems
• Local extirpation or range shifts of species not able to adapt
to temperature extremes.
• Habitat shifts (e.g., forested areas converted to scrublands).
• Increased stress on cold-water species in lakes and rivers.
Emergency Management
• Increased frequency and intensity of heatwave or heat dome
events.
• Strain on emergency services from rising need for responses
to heat-related health issues and travel disruptions.
Health and Well-being
• Increase in heat-related deaths and illnesses, particularly
among the elderly, low-income, and other sensitive
populations.
• Increase in water temperatures will alter timing, extent,
location and intensity of vibrio growth and harmful algal
blooms, increasing exposure and risk of waterborne
diseases.
Transportation • Heat damage to roads and bridges, leading to higher
maintenance costs and more frequent economic disruptions.
Water Resources
• Water scarcity due to less winter snowpack, a shift in the
timing of spring snowmelt, and lower summer streamflow.
• Increased aquifer drawdown and competition for water.
City assets affected by extreme heat may include:
• Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
• Key community facilities and structures, such as schools, elder care facilities, clinics,
grocery stores, Eastmont Parks and Recreation Center, and the community pool
• Culturally significant sites such as faith-based communities/organizations, Clovis Dig Site
(Richey-Roberts Clovis Site), and recreational facilities
• Local businesses
• Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River and city tree canopy
• Local police department, Ballard Ambulance, and medical/emergency centers
• All park systems, orchards/vineyards, and the golf course
• LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, and Loop Trail
• City housing and commercial/retail buildings (i.e. Aces, Costco, JOANN, UPS, etc.)
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 9
Drought and Snowpack
In the Northwest, summer precipitation is projected to decline under all scenarios . In addition,
projected winter temperature increases will increase the likelihood that precipitation will fall as
rain instead of snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack (Frankson, et al. , 2022). Declining
summer precipitation and reduced snowpack will contribute to more frequent, longer, and more
severe regional drought conditions that increase wildfire risk and decrease water availability
(Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfires in the region in 2020 and 2021 damaged water systems, disrupted
electricity, and increased sediment in waterways. These issues will worsen with more frequent and
severe droughts and wildfires.
In Douglas County, most drought events affect the region for at least two to three months at a time.
The USDA has recorded 585 total weeks of drought over the last 19 years, and given the historic
precedent set by past droughts, it is highly likely that East Wenatchee will experience more season-
long droughts in the future (Douglas County, 2019). July 2024 was the 4th driest July on record in
Douglas County over the past 130 years (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration &
National Integrated Drought Information System, 2024). In the future, Douglas County is projected
to experience a decrease in summer precipitation of 24% by mid-century (2050-2079) and 29% by
end-century (2070-2099) (Table 1).
Table 1. Precipitation Drought Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Precipitation Drought (Salathé, E.P. et al., 2010)
Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.*
Douglas County Douglas County
Likelihood of a year with summer precipitation
below 75% of historical normal 24% (18 to 34%) 29% (22 to 37%)
*Likelihood that summer (June-August) precipitation in any given year is below 75% of average precipitation,
the historical normal for the period 1980-2009.
Changes in snowpack levels and increased demand for water will impact the region’s water supply.
The change in seasonal water supply for any watershed in the Columbia Basin, including the area
of East Wenatchee, will vary based on local conditions and the watershed's elevation. Generally,
the Wenatchee watershed is expected to see increases in surface water supply in October to
March and decreases in June and July (Chelan County, 2020).
Additionally, projected temperature increases will increase the likelihood that precipitation will fall
as rain instead of snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack (Frankson, et al. , 2022). Table 2
shows the percent change over the next century of April 1 snowpack in Douglas. April 1st snowpack
is used as an indicator for the amount of stored water that becomes available during the melt
season. The projected decrease of April 1st snowpack indicates that less stored water will be
available for soil, streams, and reservoirs during the melt season (Raymond & Rogers, 2022). For
both mid- and end-century projections, there is a 99% chance that any year will have an April 1st
snowpack below 75% of average in Douglas County (Table 2).
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 10
Table 2. Snowpack Drought Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Likelihood of April 1st snowpack below 75% of
normal). Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.
Douglas County Douglas County
Chance that any given year has an April 1st snowpack
below 75% of the normal amount, or the 1980-2009
average, for future 30-year periods (RCP8.5)
99% (96 to 100%) 99% (99 to 100%)
Drought will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social, economic, and environmental
assets in coming decades. The table below details how drought may impact sectors and their
assets in East Wenatchee. The following table uses information from the University of Washington
Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool
and relevant city and county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Drought Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food
Systems
• Reduced water availability for crops, livestock, and processing.
• Increased demand for irrigation due to longer and warmer
growing season.
Building and Energy • Lower energy production from hydroelectric dams.
Cultural Resources and
Practices
• Loss of locally grown, temperature-sensitive foods that are
culturally important (berries, salmon, etc.).
Ecosystems
• Reduced water availability, stressed vegetation, and diminished
habitat quality.
• Increased vulnerability to wildfires through ecosystem stress and
increase of fuel load (e.g., grassland dries out and increases
tinder for large wildfire).
Emergency
Management
• Heightened demand for emergency services to enhance
planning, preparation, and response efforts in addressing water
shortages.
Health and Well-being
• Increased erosion, dust storms, environmental degradation, and
heightened wildfire risks affecting exposed and/or sensitive
populations.
• Reduced outdoor recreation opportunities relying on consistent
water supply and snowpack, such as rafting or tubing.
Water Resources
• Degraded water quality from reduced dilution of pollutants in
rivers and streams.
• Increased need for voluntary or mandatory water conservation
measures and usage restrictions.
City assets affected by drought may include:
• Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
• Eastmont Parks and Rec Center and other park/recreation assets
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 11
Sector Drought Impacts/Exposure
• Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Eco Bench (dry wheat), City tree canopy,
and remaining shrub step
• Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
Wildfire, Smoke, and Air Quality
Wildfire smoke can be severe in the region, especially in highly populated areas of eastern
Washington (Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfire activity is expected to continue to rise in central and
eastern Washington as temperatures increase. The area burned in central Washington forests is
projected to quadruple by the 2040s, compared to the 1980-2006 average, under a moderate (RCP
6.0) greenhouse gas scenario (Chelan County, 2020).2
Douglas County and East Wenatchee face significant wildfire risks due to vegetative fuel loads and
recurring droughts. Since 2006, the area has experienced 72 significant wildfires, averaging 5.14
major wildfires per year, and is likely to increase in frequency going forward (Douglas County,
2019). Table 3 presents the change in high fire danger days in Douglas County, indicating a greater
potential for wildfire activity if ignition sources and ample fuels are present.
Table 3. Wildfire Danger Douglas County
• 2010-2039 2040-2069
Wildfire Danger (T. Sheehan, et al., 2015)
Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.*
Douglas County Douglas County
Change in annual high fire danger days 6 days
(0 to 11 days)3
10 days
(5 to 18 days)
*Table shows the change in annual high fire danger days compared to the 1971 -2000 average.
Error! Reference source not found. shows the likelihood of climate and fuel conditions favorable
for wildfire in the county for future 30-year periods. For example, a value of 0.6 for the county in
2030-2059 means that there is a 60% chance that a year in that time period will have conditions
that are favorable for wildfire. By end-century (2070-2099), this likelihood is as high as 0.85 (85%)
under an RCP 8.5 scenario.
2 These projections are for increases in area burned on average - predicting fire in any given year or how big
any particular wildfire season will be is not possible, despite the clear trend towards increasing area burned.
3 Represents the model’s median value for each indicator, while the range (in parentheses) indicates 10 th and
90th percentile of values.
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 12
Increased frequency, size, and severity (acres burned) of wildfires will also lead to increased
exposure to wildfire smoke and reduced air quality. Reduced air quality is especially harmful to
low-income individuals, unhoused individuals, farmworkers, older adults, young children, pregnant
people, and those with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma, heart disease, and diabetes,
among others (Chang, et al., 2023).
In 2023, there were 1,880 wildfires statewide, the second-highest total in state history, and smoke
affected Central Washington communities longer than elsewhere (Washington State Governor's
Office, 2024). East Wenatchee is one of the state’s most affected communities from wildfire
smoke, as shown by the WA DOH ‘Smoke scores’, which are cumulative measurements of airborne
fine particulate matter from wildfires between 2016 and 2022. One census tract in East Wenatchee
reached 6,174, while the statewide average was 2,289 (Washington State Governor's Office, 2024).
Wildfire, smoke, and reduced air quality will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social,
economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. The table below details how wildfire,
smoke, and reduced air quality may impact sectors and their assets in East Wenatchee. The
following table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's (UW
Douglas County, Washington. Likelihood of Climate and Fuel Conditions for Wildfire
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 0.11(11%)
Figure 3. Wildfire Likelihood Douglas County (Raymond & Rogers, 2022)
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 13
CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and county
resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Wildfire Impacts/Exposure
Building and
Energy
• Risk to vital energy infrastructure, as wildfires can destroy transmission
lines, cutting off basic services for extended periods of time.
Economic
Development
• Increased disruptions of business continuity and lost revenue and wages.
• Damage to key industries, including recreation, timber, and agriculture
sectors.
Ecosystems
• Increased erosion affecting land (forests, grasslands, etc.) and local water
sources. Sustainable management of wildfires can promote biological
diversity and healthy ecosystems.
Emergency
Management
• Blocked evacuation routes, hindering emergency response efforts and
resource arrival.
Health and
Well-being
• Human health effects through loss of life, injury, and mental health issues
caused by extreme events or displacement. Exposure to an extreme event -
like a fire or heat dome event - can create mental health challenges even if
displacement or other physical impacts don’t occur.
• Poor air quality exacerbating respiratory problems, especially for older
adults, young children, pregnant people, and those with pre-existing health
conditions.
Water
Resources
• Water distribution infrastructure damage.
• Degraded water quality in reservoirs and increase in the need for treatment
and filtration.
Zoning and
Development
• Increased damage to buildings, especially for homes located in the
wildland-urban interface and places where development transitions into
undeveloped areas.
City assets affected by wildfire and smoke may include:
• Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
• Douglas County PUD facilities and structures, schools, elder care facilities, clinics, Eastmont
Parks and Rec Center, park systems, and other community resources
• Local businesses
• Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Eco Bench (dry wheat), City tree canopy,
and remaining shrub step
• City Police Department, Wenatchee Valley Fire Department, Ballard Ambulance, and
emergency centers
• LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, Loop Trail, and EV Charging Stations
• Wastewater treatment facilities and natural gas supply
• Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
• Housing and commercial/retail buildings
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 14
Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
While precipitation in the Wenatchee Valley will continue to be greatly influenced by year-to-year
variability, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase
across the region, as well as more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow (Chelan
County, 2020), (Chang, et al., 2023). This will increase the frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow
(ROS) and rapid snowmelt flooding due to warmer winter temperatures. While projections of
annual precipitation are variable, Douglas County is projected to experience an increase in total
annual precipitation through mid- and end-century, based on an RCP 8.5 scenario (Table 4).
Table 4. Annual Precipitation Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Total Annual Precipitation (Salathé, E.P. et al.,
2010) Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.
Douglas County Douglas County
Percent change in average total annual
precipitation for future 30-year periods compared
to the 1980-2009 average.
19.1% (12.6 to 28.4%) 24.7% (12.9 to 37%)
Seasonal precipitation projections are mixed for jurisdictions East of the Cascades; however, a
majority of models project increases in precipitation for winter, spring, and fall precipitation and
decreases in summer precipitation. Figure 4 shows projected change in total summer and winter
precipitation (%) for the region east of the Cascades through mid- and end-century. The figure
presents precipitation projections from several climate models, with the average value
represented by the line in the middle of each box. The high emissions scenario projects an 8.5%
increase in winter precipitation in the 2050s and 6.3% decrease in the summer through the 2050s
(Rogers, 2021). Through the 2080s, winter precipitation is projected to increase by 14.6%, while
summer precipitation is expected to decrease by 9.9% (Rogers, 2021).
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 15
Figure 4. Projected change in summer and winter precipitation (%) for areas east of the Cascades in the
2050s and 2080s relative to 1950-1999 for a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) (Rogers, 2021)
These precipitation changes, especially increased precipitation in winter months, will likely result
in an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in East Wenatchee, with the most
vulnerable areas including the convergence of the Wenatchee River with other rivers and the
headwaters (Chelan County, 2020). In addition, rapid snowmelt driven by higher winter and
summer temperatures could result in increased flooding as snowpack melts faster and earlier in
the season. East Wenatchee is likely to experience flash flooding in low-lying developments (e.g.
Loop Trail, Hydro Park), heavily modified riparian areas, localized areas from highly modified draws
and canyons, and on roadways with poor drainage.
Extreme precipitation and flooding will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social,
economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. The table below details how extreme
precipitation and flooding may impact sectors and their assets in East Wenatchee. The following
table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG)
Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Extreme Precipitation Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and
Food Systems
• Delayed planting, reduced crop quality, and increased erosion and
root diseases.
Cultural Resources
and Practices
• Minimal to complete damage of community assets, such as
community gardens, historic buildings, and local businesses.
Economic
Development
• Increased insurance premiums due to more extreme/frequent
flooding.
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 16
Sector Extreme Precipitation Impacts/Exposure
Ecosystems
• Loss of river shore and riparian habitat to flooding and erosion,
where sufficient space for habitat migration is not available.
• Altered streamflow patterns, sedimentation, and nutrient runoff,
which can disrupt aquatic habitats and affect fish populations and
water quality.
Emergency
Management
• Disrupted essential services such as emergency response and
medical services due to impacted roads and infrastructure.
Health and Well-
being
• Heightened health impacts such as injury, spread of disease,
respiratory affects, and mental health effects.
Transportation • Damaged roads from flooding, landslides, and erosion, leading to
higher maintenance costs and disrupting essential services.
Water Resources • Increased demands on stormwater and sewer management systems
with the potential for stormwater and sewer overflow.
Zoning and
Development
• Agricultural, commercial, industrial, and residential buildings in
floodplains at risk from intensified flooding due to heavier
precipitation.
• Need for new or upgraded flood-control and erosion-control
structures.
City assets affected by extreme precipitation and flooding may include:
• Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
• Douglas County PUD facilities and structures, schools, elder care facilities, and other
community buildings and resources
• Local businesses
• Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Sand Canyon drainage, Eco Bench, tree
canopy, remaining shrub step.
• Police Department and emergency centers
• LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, and Loop Trail
• Wastewater Treatment Facilities
• Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
• Housing and commercial/retail buildings (e.g. Aces, Costco, JOANN, UPS, etc.)
Next Steps
The climate impacts summary identifies historical and projected climate impacts, with the goal of
supporting the climate policy audit and identifying gaps and opportunities within East Wenatchee’s
Comprehensive Plan. This work will inform the City’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA),
which will ultimately guide the development of the Climate Resilience Sub-element for the
Comprehensive Plan. Moving forward, we will seek review and feedback from the community and
City staff to ensure that the climate impacts summary is comprehensive and accurately reflects
local concerns and priorities. This input will be crucial for informing the upcoming policy audit,
ensuring that the policies identified are robust and responsive to the climate challenges identified.
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 17
Bibliography
Chang, M., Erikson, L., Araujo, K., Asinas, E., Chisholm Hatfield, S., Crozier, L., . . . Shandas, V.
(2023). Ch. 27. Northwest. Fifth National Climate Assessment.
doi:https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH27
Chelan County. (2020). Chelan County Climate Resilience Strategy. Retrieved from
https://www.co.chelan.wa.us/files/natural-
resources/documents/DRAFT%20Chelan%20Climate%20Resiliency%20Strategy%202020
_1023_v2_sm.pdf
Douglas County. (2019). Hazard Mitigation Plan. Retrieved from
https://www.eastwenatcheewa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/142/2019-Douglas-County-
Multi-Jurisdictional-Hazard-Mitigation-Plan-PDF
Frankson, et al. . (2022). Washington State Climate Summary. Retrieved from
https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/wa/
Marvel, K., Su, W., Delgado, R., Aarons, S., Chatterjee, A., Garcia, M., . . . Vose, R. (2023). Ch. 2.
Climate trends. Fifth National Climate Assessment.
doi:https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH2
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, & National Integrated Drought Information
System. (2024). Drought Conditions for Douglas County. Retrieved from
https://www.drought.gov/states/washington/county/Douglas
Office of the Washington State Climatologist. (2023). PNW Temperature, Precipitation, and SWE
Trend Analysis Tool. Retrieved from https://climate.washington.edu/climate -
data/trendanalysisapp/
Perlwitz, J., Knutson, T., Kossin, J., & LeGrande, A. (2017). Large-scale circulation and climate
variability. Climate Science Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/J0RV0KVQ.
Raymond, C., & Rogers, M. (2022). Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington. Retrieved from
https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/climate-mapping-for-a-resilient-washington/
Rogers, M. (2021). Pacific Northwest Climate Projections Tool. UW Climate Impacts Group.
Retrieved from https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/pacific-northwest-climate-
projection-tool/
Salathé, E.P. et al. (2010). Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington.
Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y
T. Sheehan, et al. (2015). Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of
the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures. Retrieved from
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023
Washington Department of Commerce. (2023). Climate Element Planning Guidance. Retrieved
from https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/fpg3h0lbwln2ctqjg7jg802h54ie19jx
Washington Department of Commerce. (2023). Climate Element Planning Guidance. Retrieved
from https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/fpg3h0lbwln2ctqjg7jg802h54ie19jx
Exhibit A
Add Doc Title Here | Page 0
East Wenatchee Climate
Vulnerability Assessment
March 2025
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 1
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 3
Glossary .................................................................................................................................... 4
Executive Summary................................................................................................................. 6
Why Assess Climate Change Vulnerability? ............................................................................ 6
Climate Vulnerability Framework ............................................................................................ 8
Results At-A-Glance ................................................................................................................... 9
Alignment with Other Planning Efforts ................................................................................. 12
Approach and Methodology ................................................................................................. 14
Climate Impacts Summary ..................................................................................................... 14
Climate Variability and Climate Scenarios ......................................................................... 14
Data Review ............................................................................................................................. 15
Vulnerability Risk Assessment Approach .............................................................................. 16
City Staff and Community Engagement ............................................................................... 22
Addressing Data Gaps ............................................................................................................ 23
Vulnerability to Warming Temperatures and Extreme Heat ............................................ 24
Warming Trends and Projections .......................................................................................... 25
Heat Exposure in East Wenatchee ......................................................................................... 27
Community Vulnerability to Heat .......................................................................................... 29
Sensitivity Factors ................................................................................................................ 29
Community Adaptive Capacity ........................................................................................... 41
Physical Asset Vulnerability to Heat ...................................................................................... 43
Sensitivity Factors ................................................................................................................ 45
Adaptive Capacity of Physical Assets ................................................................................. 48
Vulnerability to Extreme Precipitation and Flooding ........................................................ 51
Flooding Trends and Projections ........................................................................................... 52
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 2
Flood Exposure in East Wenatchee ....................................................................................... 54
Community Vulnerability to Flooding ................................................................................... 56
Sensitivity Factors ................................................................................................................ 56
Community Adaptive Capacity ........................................................................................... 68
Physical Asset Vulnerability to Flooding................................................................................ 69
Sensitivity Factors ................................................................................................................ 71
Adaptive Capacity of Physical Assets ................................................................................. 75
Conclusion and Next Steps ................................................................................................... 78
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 78
Next Steps ................................................................................................................................ 80
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 81
Appendix 1: Vulnerability Scoring Matrix ........................................................................... 88
Example .................................................................................................................................... 90
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary .............................................................................. 91
Appendix 3: City Asset List ................................................................................................... 92
Appendix 4. City of East Wenatchee UGA Areas ................................................................. 93
Suggested Citation
Cascadia Consulting Group. (2025). East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 3
Acknowledgements
The East Wenatchee Climate Element is supported with
funding from Washington’s Climate Commitment Act. The
CCA supports Washington’s climate action efforts by putting
cap-and-invest dollars to work reducing climate pollution,
creating jobs, and improving public health. Information
about the CCA is available at www.climate.wa.gov.
The following people contributed to this assessment:
East Wenatchee Project Team Role on Project
Curtis Lillquist, Community Development
Director
Garren Melton, Public Works Manager
City Project Lead
Project Advisor
Climate Policy Advisory Team (CPAT):
Chaun Birks, City Planning Commissioner
David Hewitt, City Planning Commissioner
Lacy Stockton, City Council Member
Rick Edwards, Environmental and Climate
Community Member
Garren Melton, City Public Works
Laura Rivera, Latinx Community Member
CPAT Members
Consultant Project Team Role on Project
Nicole Gutierrez, Senior Associate Project Manager
Abigail Lambert, Associate Deputy Project Manager & Vulnerability
Assessment Lead
Sarah Farbstein, Project Coordinator Vulnerability Assessment Analyst
Sebastian Espinosa, Associate GIS Analyst
Mike Chang, Director of Equity Principal in Charge
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 4
Glossary
Adaptive Capacity: The ability to moderate the damage of, cope with, or adjust to climate
change. An example of this is having access to a vehicle and health insurance which
increases people’s ability to manage health impacts from extreme heat, smoke, and any
injuries related to climate hazards
Block Groups: Geographic subdivision of a census tract, as determined by the United
States Census Bureau.
Climate Change: The long-term shifting of environmental conditions and a change in
predicted weather patterns. Climate change shows itself in many ways, including changes
in rainfall, droughts, increasing floods, and heat waves.
Climate hazards: The climate-related physical events or trends that may cause damage
and loss, such as floods, extreme heat, and wildfire.
Climate risks: The potential impacts that climate change could have on a system, which
depend on its exposure to climate factors and its sensitivity to those changes. To
characterize risks, a Climate Vulnerability Assessment will assess:
• Exposure: The degree to which a system is exposed to climate hazards. For
example, areas in towns and cities that are in a 100-year floodplain will have higher
exposure to flooding impacts.
• Sensitivity: The degree to which that system is likely to be affected by climate
change. For example, older adults are less able to regulate their body temperatures
and thus more physically sensitive to extreme heat than younger people.
Frontline Communities: Communities that will be disproportionately impacted by climate
change; these are the populations that face historic and current inequities, often
experience the earliest and most acute impacts of climate change, and have limited
resources and/or capacity to adapt.
Overburdened Communities: Geographic areas where vulnerable populations
experience multiple, compounding environmental harms and health risks. In Washington
State, these communities have historically faced systemic health, social, and environmental
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 5
inequities, leading to disproportionate exposure to pollution, climate hazards, and limited
access to resources that support well-being.
Urban Heat Island Effect: Urban areas that are significantly warmer than surrounding
rural areas. They form where there is limited greenery and a high density of heat-
absorbing urban materials, such as concrete, asphalt, and buildings. Heat islands can occur
in small or large cities and suburban areas, or anywhere with large extents of heat-
absorbing surfaces and fewer trees.
Vulnerability: The state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated
with environmental and social change and from the absence of the capacity to adapt.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 6
Executive Summary
This Climate Vulnerability Assessment is designed to support the City of East Wenatchee
in developing the Climate Resilience Chapter of the City’s Comprehensive Plan. Climate
vulnerability is the possibility of a system, asset, or community to be negatively affected
by climate change. Climate vulnerability is defined as the combination of exposure to
climate change impacts (e.g., to what extent the system will experience impacts of climate
change), the sensitivity of the communities or assets to climate change (e.g., to what
degree an asset is susceptible to climate change), and the community's ability to adapt to
those changes. This Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) aims to evaluate the
vulnerability of East Wenatchee’s physical and social assets to heat and flooding, two
significant climate risks for East Wenatchee.
Why Assess Climate Change Vulnerability?
East Wenatchee is already facing a variety of climate change impacts, such as rising
temperatures, periods of poor air quality, and shifts in precipitation patterns. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report highlights
the need to reduce emissions and prepare for climate impacts. If there is no action taken,
these impacts will grow more intense and adaptation will be necessary across multiple
sectors to avoid ever-worsening outcomes (IPCC, 2023). Without investments into climate
action at the global scale – including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
adapting to current and future climate risks – the city is expected to face increasingly
severe climate impacts. These include rising temperatures, more extreme heat events,
worsening wildfire activity with increased smoke and poor air quality, intensified extreme
precipitation leading to flooding, and longer, more severe drought conditions due to
reduced snowpack and declining summer precipitation. This CVA explores two priority
climate impacts— extreme heat and extreme precipitation—as described below.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 7
Recent examples of climate impacts include the record-breaking heat dome experienced
in the summer of 2021, which caused significant heat-related illness, infrastructure strain,
and damage to ecosystems across the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, wildfires in
surrounding areas are becoming more frequent and extensive, leading to evacuations for
residents and visitors and poor air quality (Chelan County, 2020). These events highlight
the increasing frequency and severity of climate-driven hazards affecting East Wenatchee.
As part of East Wenatchee’s update to its Comprehensive Plan, the City is developing a
Climate Vulnerability Assessment to provide an overview of current and future heat
and flood risks and hazards that are affecting East Wenatchee’s social, economic,
environmental, and physical systems. This CVA will be used to develop and prioritize
Climate Resilience Chapter goals and policies to enhance climate resilience in the city.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 8
Climate Vulnerability Framework
This CVA assesses the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key assets and
communities to support the identification of policies and actions that the City can take to
reduce the risks of climate change. The following figure (Figure 1) outlines key theories
and concepts that will be used throughout this document:
Figure 1. Climate Vulnerability Framework
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 9
Results At-A-Glance
This CVA provides a detailed assessment of how two key climate risks – heat and
flooding – are already affecting and will continue to affect priority physical assets and
residents in East Wenatchee. While this CVA illuminates how climate change affects a
variety of assets and communities, this CVA is not intended to be a comprehensive
assessment of all risks and hazards to the city. This CVA focuses on extreme heat and
flooding to avoid duplicating regional efforts on wildfire and smoke preparedness and to
provide in-depth and actionable assessment results. The CVA has two key objectives that
guide its role in shaping the City's approach to planning for climate resilience and
adaptation:
1. Generate understanding of heat and flood impacts: The CVA focuses on
warming temperatures and flooding to generate a meaningful understanding of
how these impacts affect vulnerable sectors, communities, and assets. It uses
socioeconomic data to assess community sensitivities and inform decision-making
and public awareness of climate risk.
2. Support the Climate Resilience Chapter and future planning: The CVA will guide
East Wenatchee's climate planning by integrating climate considerations into land
use, zoning, infrastructure, housing, and policy decisions, including specific policies
for the Climate Resilience Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan. It will help decision-
makers and the public identify frontline and overburdened communities,
understand proposed changes, and guide future projects to improve climate
resilience.
Warming Temperature and Extreme Heat
East Wenatchee is significantly vulnerable to extreme heat, with rising temperatures
intensifying health, social, and economic challenges. Certain populations are at a higher
risk of experiencing impacts from extreme heat, including low-income households, older
adults, individuals with existing health conditions, and communities with language
barriers or immigration concerns. Existing efforts that enhance resilience to heat impacts
include policies for affordable housing, improved transportation and mobility, overall
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 10
infrastructure investments, expansion and services related to outdoor recreation, and
social services that protect vulnerable groups from heat impacts.
Physical assets in the City like older buildings, aging transportation infrastructure, and
areas with high impervious surfaces are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat due to
poor insulation and the urban heat island effect. While key community facilities, such as
schools and health centers, help support community resilience to climate impacts,
ongoing challenges exist in upgrading infrastructure to withstand and recover from heat
impacts. Table 1 summarizes the heat vulnerability assessment scoring based on the
results of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity analysis in this CVA. See Overall
Vulnerability Characterization for information on determining these scores.
Icon Key: The number of icons in each cell correspond to the scores below
Low Low/Moderate Moderate Moderate/High High
Table 1. Heat Vulnerability Assessment At-A-Glance
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Co
m
m
u
n
i
t
y
Vu
l
n
e
r
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Children and older
adults
Low-income
households
Health burden index
Tree canopy deficiency
Physical Asset Vulnerability
Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
East Wenatchee is moderately vulnerable to extreme precipitation and flooding, which are
expected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change. Extreme storms
are expected to overwhelm drainage systems and cause urban floods, putting people and
property at risk. Certain populations are at a higher risk of experiencing impacts from
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 11
extreme precipitation and flooding, including low-income households, older adults,
individuals with chronic health conditions, and those with limited English proficiency.
Existing efforts to enhance resilience include infrastructure investments and policies
aimed at improving drainage systems, public health services, and flood preparedness, but
challenges remain in addressing disparities and ensuring flood protection for vulnerable
communities.
Physical assets in East Wenatchee, such as transportation networks, older buildings, and
areas with high percentages of impervious surfaces (Ie. highly developed urban zones),
are vulnerable to flooding due to inadequate stormwater infrastructure and floodplain
buffers. While key community facilities, like schools and health centers, help support
resilience, ongoing efforts are needed to upgrade systems and improve flood protection
to ensure the resilience of vulnerable populations and assets. Table 2 summarizes the
flood vulnerability assessment scoring based on the results of the exposure, sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity analysis in this CVA. See Overall Vulnerability Characterization for
information on determining these scores.
Table 2. Flood Vulnerability Assessment At-A-Glance
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Co
m
m
u
n
i
t
y
Vu
l
n
e
r
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Children and older adults
Low-income households
Health burden index
Tree canopy deficiency
Physical Asset Vulnerability
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 12
Alignment with Other Planning Efforts
This CVA will complement other regional planning efforts, such as the Chelan-Douglas
Health-Focused Climate Vulnerability
Assessment, the Douglas County
Community Wildfire Protection Plan, and
the Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional
Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP). The Chelan-
Douglas Health-Focused CVA, currently in
development, takes a long-term view
spanning the next 50 to 100 years, and
includes a deep focus on the health impacts
of climate change to frontline or vulnerable
populations. One primary goal of the
Chelan-Douglas Health-Focused CVA is to
support action by community-based
organizations (CBOs), local government,
and healthcare systems.
The Douglas County Community Wildfire Protection Plan, which was updated in 2022 and
will be updated again by 2026, includes a county-wide wildfire hazard assessment,
identification of communities at risk, and recommendations on how communities can
reduce their wildfire risk. The plan serves as an “umbrella” document to provide
background information for finer-scale communities within Douglas County (i.e.,
subdivisions or homeowners associations) who wish to develop a specific Community
Wildfire Protection Plan for their area of interest.
The 2019 Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) aims to reduce
Douglas County and its communities’ vulnerability to natural hazards, including droughts,
floods, and wildfires. The HMP contains hazard profiles for local jurisdictions, such as East
Wenatchee, and risk assessments for specific hazards. While the plan assesses severe
storms, it does not include extreme heat in its risk assessment.
Informed by these associated planning efforts, this CVA focuses on addressing gaps in
understanding not yet covered by existing initiatives. Through focusing on specific assets
Figure 2. Chelan and Douglas Counties (Chelan-
Douglas Health District, n.d.)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 13
and communities in East Wenatchee exposed to heat and flooding impacts, this report
helps provide detailed, city-specific insights into how the community may be affected by
climate change in the future. Throughout this CVA, other planning efforts are synthesized
or referenced to point towards the regional work being done in the climate vulnerability
space, but without duplicating efforts.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Approach and Methodology
This document assesses the social and physical vulnerabilities to heat and flooding risks in
East Wenatchee, focusing on priority communities and assets identified by City staff with
input from the Climate Policy Advisory Team (CPAT). This assessment identifies assets or
communities more sensitive to heat and flooding by examining physical factors such as
impervious surfaces, urban heat islands, and limited tree canopy cover, as well as social
determinants of health, such as pre-existing health conditions or lack of health insurance.
The findings also include insights gathered from local plans, previous assessments, and
input from the CPAT to provide an understanding of specific climate vulnerabilities in East
Wenatchee.
Climate Impacts Summary
To inform the CVA, Cascadia completed a Climate Impacts Summary (see Appendix 2:
Climate Impacts Summary) to identify historical and projected changes to a variety of
climatic indicators, such as temperature and precipitation. This summary of historical and
future climate conditions lays the groundwork for the more holistic CVA. Cascadia used a
variety of established and peer-reviewed resources—including the University of
Washington’s Climate Impacts Group’s Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington, NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Information WA State Climate Summary, the 5th
National Climate Assessment’s Northwest Chapter, and other relevant studies and
datasets—to identify observed and projected climate trends relevant for East Wenatchee.
Climate Variability and Climate Scenarios
Climate change refers to the long-term shifting of environmental conditions and weather
patterns. Since the 1800s, human activities—especially the burning of fossil fuels like coal,
oil, and gas—have been the primary cause of climate change. Higher levels of
atmospheric GHGs, notably carbon emissions, have driven the increase in land and ocean
temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, leading to various biophysical impacts such
as more frequent and intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms, droughts, and melting glaciers
(Marvel, et al., 2023). Natural feedback processes like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 15
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation contribute to variations in air temperature, extreme
weather events, precipitation, and ocean conditions over interannual and interdecadal
periods. However, the rate of climate change caused by human activities far exceeds any
natural variability from these processes (Perlwitz, 2017).
To understand and project future climate conditions and impacts, models are used to
simulate how climate hazards will increase and intensify over the next 100 years. These
models rely on a variety of scenarios that incorporate factors such as future land use,
population growth, technological innovation, and global GHG emission levels. One of the
frameworks commonly used in these models is the Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP), which outlines different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories.
This CVA will primarily use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 1. RCP 8.5
represents a “business-as-usual” scenario in which emissions continue at their current
trajectory. It is a high emissions scenario and projects a global temperature warming of
about 4.3˚C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperatures.
For the full climate impact summary including extreme heat, drought and snowpack,
wildfire, smoke and air quality, and extreme precipitation and flooding, please refer to
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary.
Data Review
As part of this assessment, we conducted a comprehensive literature review to gather the
latest research on observed and projected climate trends, focusing on heat and flood
impacts in East Wenatchee. Our goal was to ensure that the studies and data we used
were directly relevant to the city's unique geography and climate. In addition to the
resources below, data was collected through staff, partners, and community engagement
touchpoints (see City Staff and Community Engagement). Resources reviewed for the CVA
are included in Table 3, below.
1When RCP 8.5 data was not available for priority climate impacts, this CVA relied on a moderate emissions
scenario (RCP4.5) or SSP 5-8.5 (high emissions scenario using CMIP 6 models).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 16
Table 3. Resources reviewed for the East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Category Resources
East Wenatchee
Policy and
Planning Context
• East Wenatchee Comprehensive Plan (2019)
• Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (2019)
• East Wenatchee Shoreline Master Program (2021)
• Our Valley Our Future Sustainable Environment resources
• Chelan County Climate Resilience Strategy (2020)
Regional Climate
Data and
Assessments
• Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (2023)
• Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023)
• Washington State Climate Summary (2022)
• NOAA Drought Conditions for Douglas County (2024)
• PNW Temperature, Precipitation, and SWE Trend Analysis Tool (2023)
Social
Vulnerability
Assessment Tools
• U.S. Census Data
• WA Environmental Health Disparities Tool
• Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool
• Tree Equity Score National Explorer
Vulnerability Risk Assessment Approach
The Vulnerability Risk Assessment section describes the methodology used to determine
how key assets and communities were identified as being more or less vulnerable to heat
and flood impacts.
Assessing Exposure
For this assessment, the project team mapped how different assets, such as housing,
parks, or transit infrastructure, and different block groups 2 are exposed to urban flooding
and extreme heat. To evaluate exposure, the project team developed heat and flood
exposure maps to characterize low, medium, and high exposure citywide. The following
data layers and methods were used to assess the exposure of assets and communities to
climate change impacts across the city (Table 4).
2“Block groups” are defined as a geographic subdivision of a census tract, as determined by the United
States Census Bureau.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Table 4. Climate Change Impacts and Data Sources
Climate Change
Impact Description Data Source
Flooding FEMA flood maps containing both the
100- and 500-year flood plain.
100- and 500-year
floodplain layers from FEMA
Extreme Heat
Heat mapping conducted by Cascadia
using heat risk index from land
surface temperature.
Land Surface Temperature
Data from the U.S.
Geological Survey
Heat Mapping Methodology
To identify areas more susceptible to the urban heat island effect, Land Surface
Temperature (LST) was used as a proxy for extreme heat. To model LST, U.S. Geological
Survey Landsat Collection 2 Level 1 data was collected for three different dates (USGS,
2024). These dates were chosen to represent periods of varying high temperatures and
minimal cloud cover to ensure data reliability (Table 5) (NOAA, 2024).
Table 5: Maximum daily air temperatures recorded at Wenatchee Pangborn Memorial Airport on
selected days.
Date Maximum Air Temperature
07/10/2024 105°F
07/18/2024 99°F
07/26/2024 83°F
The Landsat data from each date was imported into ArcGIS Pro, processed to LST in
degrees Fahrenheit, and the average of all three layers was established.
The average LST was then extracted at the block group level to categorize block groups
into low, medium, and high extreme heat exposure levels (National Integrated Heat
Health Information System, 2019). A similar approach was used for physical assets, where
LST was extracted, and the same classification method was applied to establish asset-
specific heat exposure levels.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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It is important to note that assets and block groups with low exposure ratings do not indicate
that the area has no exposure – for example, all regions of East Wenatchee will be exposed to
warming temperatures and extreme heat in the future, but some block groups are more
exposed, and thus have a higher exposure rating, than others.
Flood Mapping Methodology
To develop a flood risk index for East Wenatchee, the latest FEMA flood layers were
downloaded into ArcGIS Pro and overlaid onto developed and urban areas extracted from
the USGS National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2021).
Flood exposure at the block group level was assessed by calculating the total area of flood
hazard zones overlapping developed areas within each block group. This value was then
divided by the total area of the block group to determine the percentage of developed
land exposed to flooding into three designations: low, medium, and high.
To determine physical asset exposure to flooding, assets were classified into three
exposure levels based on their location relative to flood zones:
• High exposure: Assets overlap with the 100-year flood zone.
• Medium exposure: Assets overlap with the 500-year flood zone but outside the
100-year flood zone.
• Low exposure: Assets outside both the 100-year and 500-year flood zones.
It is important to note that assets and block groups with low exposure ratings do not indicate
that the area has no exposure—for example, all regions of East Wenatchee will experience heavy
rainfall and potential flooding, but some areas are more at risk due to proximity to flood-prone
zones. These areas receive a higher exposure rating than others.
Additionally, existing peer-reviewed research and published reports, as well as staff and
community input, were used to qualitatively complement the spatial analysis to achieve a
more comprehensive understanding of climate risks and vulnerability.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Assessing Sensitivity
To evaluate sensitivity, the project team selected indicators relevant to each asset type
and community in relation to specific hazards. Sensitivity indicators were chosen based on
asset and community characteristics, climate hazard types, and available data.
Community Sensitivity: While many factors contribute to community resiliency, the
following indicators were selected due to data availability, quality, and relevance. These
indicators illustrate how heat and flooding will affect community resiliency and how these
impacts are not evenly distributed across the city. Indicators were assessed by block
group and include: tree canopy deficiency; people experiencing poverty; children and
older adults; and health burden index. Each sensitivity indicator received a score of high,
medium, and low based on percentile ranking compared to other areas in the city. See
Table 6 for more detailed information on the sensitivity indicators, data source, units, and
definition of low, medium, and high values.
Table 6. Community Sensitivity Indicators
Sensitivity
Indicator
Data Source and Unit of
Measurement
Description of Low, Medium,
High Values
Tree canopy Percent tree canopy coverage
(Tree Equity Score National
Explorer)
High: below 10% canopy coverage
Medium: between 10-15% canopy
coverage
Low: above 15% canopy coverage
People
experiencing
poverty
Percentage of people living on
incomes below 200% of the
federal poverty line (ACS 2017-
2021) (Tree Equity Score National
Explorer)
High: above 30%
Medium: between 15-30%
Low: below 15%
Children and
older adults
Percent seniors (65+) and
children (0-17) (ACS 2017-2021)
(Tree Equity Score National
Explorer)
High: above 45%
Medium: between 30-45%
Low: below 30%
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Sensitivity
Indicator
Data Source and Unit of
Measurement
Description of Low, Medium,
High Values
Health
burden
index
Prevalence of poor mental
health, physical health,
asthma, and heart disease in
an equally weighted index
(between 0-1) (CDC PLACES) (Tree
Equity Score National Explorer)
High: above .50
Medium: between .25-.50
Low: below .25
Physical Asset Sensitivity: To assess the sensitivity of physical assets to flood and heat
impacts, the project team evaluated asset characteristics such as asset age, condition, and
location. For example, older or infrequently maintained buildings are more sensitive to
extreme heat and flooding, as they lack proper insulation or are prone to damage. Asset-
specific sensitivity indicators such as the age or condition of individual assets were
unavailable, so the analysis took a qualitative approach to describe sensitivity of various
asset categories using City documents, available maps, and staff input. A total of 49 assets
were identified through City documents and City staff consultation, with an emphasis on
critical assets. The project team determined the assets’ exposure through spatial analysis,
and sensitivity through a qualitative assessment of asset characteristics. The following
broader asset categories were used to organize the assessment:
• Education
• Wastewater
• Water
• Power
• Residences (Housing)
• Safety
• Transportation
A full list of the assets mapped is included in Appendix 3: City Asset List.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Assessing Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is the
ability to mitigate damage
from, cope with, or adjust
to climate change.
Adaptive capacity can be
linked with the city’s
geography and
infrastructure – for
example access to the
Columbia River and the
region's irrigation
infrastructure – which can
help mitigate the urban
heat island effect by
supporting green spaces
and agricultural cooling.
Adaptive capacity is also
associated with the City’s leadership, staffing, resources, and partnerships. For example, if
the City has completed robust research and analysis around an issue, has clear policies,
and has galvanized resources and actors to implement priority actions, that leads to a
higher adaptive capacity. If the City has developed some plans but has not yet
implemented many actions, that indicates a moderate adaptive capacity.
Overall Vulnerability Characterization
Having assessed exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, the project team
characterized the vulnerability of physical assets and communities across East
Wenatchee. Vulnerability scores were determined by categorizing block groups and assets
into low, medium, or high ratings based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. If
around 50% or more of assets or block groups fell into a specific rating for each indicator,
that rating was assigned as the overall exposure or sensitivity score for that indicator. For
categories without block group or asset scale assessment, such as asset sensitivity or
Figure 3. East Wenatchee City Hall (Lamb, 2022)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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adaptive capacity, the team relied on qualitative data from document review and
engagement to determine scores. The overall vulnerability scores were determined by
combing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity scores, as defined in the Climate
Vulnerability Framework.
For a detailed scoring matrix and methodology, see Appendix 1: Vulnerability Scoring
Matrix.
City Staff and Community Engagement
Community and City staff engagement informed the CVA process via the following
methods:
• The project team deployed a Climate Resiliency Survey to gather input from
community members about climate impacts, community assets, and hazard
mitigation strategies. The responses were used to contextualize and ground the
findings of this CVA. The survey was open during the Fall of 2024 and received 93
responses.
• The project team met with the Climate Policy Advisory Team (CPAT), a diverse
group composed of two Planning Commissioners, a City Council Member, a Public
Works employee, and two community members. The CPAT convened on October 2,
2024 and February 5th, 2025, to provide guidance on the audience and focus of the
CVA, and provide feedback on the first draft CVA and maps. The CPAT also provided
written comment on the 70% draft of the CVA.
• City staff tabled at public events, such as the Wings ‘N Wishes Holiday Event on
December 5, 2024, and gathered insights from residents to identify climate
vulnerability hotspots to inform the CVA.
• The project team hosted a staff listening session on January 22nd, 2025 to seek
input on the draft CVA analysis and maps.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Addressing Data Gaps
Quantitative data doesn’t always tell the full
story of how different communities
experience climate risks. Demographic
datasets may lack key social determinants of
health – such as gender identity or
immigration status – making it difficult to
fully understand various dimensions of
climate vulnerability. Additionally, broad
datasets often focus on a single
determinant such as age, health, or income,
failing to capture the overlapping social
factors, which makes it harder to fully
understand who is most at risk.
Additionally, the spatial resolution of available data may not provide sufficient granularity
to identify localized climate vulnerabilities. For example, census block groups may fail to
capture air quality impacts from highways or major roadways, which typically affect areas
in very close proximity to transit routes. To further address these gaps, the City could
prioritize gathering qualitative feedback and insights from residents through ongoing
community engagement.
Figure 4. View looking south towards the Columbia
River from East Wenatchee (Tuason, East Wenatchee
Washington Looking South, 2018)
Exhibit A
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Vulnerability to Warming
Temperatures and Extreme Heat
Warming temperatures and extreme heat will have varied impacts on the social,
economic, and environmental well-being of East Wenatchee, including impacts on City
services such as emergency management. In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest
experienced a historic heat dome that set all-time-high temperature records across the
region, resulting in nearly 130 deaths in Washington (Vogel, et al., 2023). During this event,
Wenatchee recorded a high of 113°F, breaking the record for its all-time highest
temperature (Buhr, 2021). Extreme heat events like the 2021 heat dome will become more
likely in the future, and can cause cascading impacts on residents, businesses, and
systems.
The combined effects of heatwaves,
wildfires, and pollution can
significantly degrade air quality due
to increased levels of ground level
ozone, particulate matter (PM), and
other harmful pollutants. Portions of
East Wenatchee, in the business
district and surrounding residential
areas, are significantly affected by air
pollution, experiencing elevated
levels of PM 2.5 compared to the rest
of Washington State (WA Department Figure 5. 2021 Heat Dome Map (National Weather
Service Spokane, 2021)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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of Ecology Air Quality Program, 2023). The city overlaps with areas identified by the
Environmental Justice Index as highly impacted and the Climate and Economic Justice
Screening Tool as disadvantaged, noting them as overburdened by air pollution (WA
Department of Ecology Air Quality Program, 2023). More specifically, the city experiences
higher rates of poverty, asthma, and uninsured residents, making the community more
vulnerable to the adverse effects of extreme heat and air pollution (WA Department of
Ecology Air Quality Program, 2023).
This section describes exposure to heat impacts for priority assets and sensitive
communities in the city. It evaluates factors that make an asset more vulnerable to heat,
such as the presence of impervious surfaces and limited tree canopy cover. It also
presents the results of heat risk mapping which will determine the vulnerability of city
assets and sensitive communities.
Warming Trends and Projections
The average temperature in the Pacific Northwest, and Washington state in particular, has
warmed over the last century and is expected to warm at a faster rate through the next
century and beyond. The Northwest's average yearly temperature has increased by 2°F
since the early 20th century. Additionally, the coldest day of the year from 1986 to 2016
was 4.78°F warmer compared to 1901 to 1960. In East Wenatchee, annual average
temperatures have increased approximately 0.26°F per decade since 1900 (Figure 6)
(Office of the Washington State Climatologist, 2023).
Exhibit A
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Figure 6. Annual Average Temperature East Wenatchee (Office of the Washington State Climatologist, 2023)
By the 2080s, annual average temperature in the Northwest is projected to increase by
10.0°F under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) relative to the period 1950–1999 (Chang, et
al., 2023). Figure 7 shows the change in summer (June-August) average maximum
temperature in Douglas County for future 30-year periods compared to the 1980-2009
average. By mid-century (2040-2069), the average summer maximum temperature is
expected to increase by 6.6°F in the county. By end-century (2070-2099), the average
summer maximum temperature is expected to increase by 11.4°F across the county.
Exhibit A
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Figure 7. Summer Average Maximum Temperature Douglas County (Raymond & Rogers, 2022)
Heat Exposure in East Wenatchee
This analysis provides an understanding of the vulnerability of both assets and
populations to current and future exposure to extreme heat by mapping the relationship
between assets, communities, and extreme heat. Figure 8 shows the City's Urban Growth
Area (UGA) and the heat exposure levels across different block groups. Areas in the
northeastern and eastern parts of the UGA face a higher risk of extreme heat, such as
Fatcher Heights 3 and areas north of Grant Road, while the western area and areas south
of Grant Road have a medium to low risk. The following sections use this map to compare
how different communities may be more or less sensitive to heat exposure.
3 See Appendix 4. City of East Wenatchee UGA Areas for reference of area locations.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug)
Maximum Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Exhibit A
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Figure 8. Heat Exposure in East Wenatchee. The city’s Urban Growth Area (UGA) is outlined in black,
representing the City’s planning area and designated region where growth and development are managed
under the WA Growth Management Act (GMA). Areas outside of the UGA are more transparent in color to
encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Community Vulnerability to Heat
This section presents the results of the sensitive communities’ analysis, highlighting the
distribution of climate-sensitive populations in East Wenatchee and their heat exposure
through maps and accompanying narrative descriptions. Additionally, East Wenatchee's
capacity to adapt to these challenges was assessed.
Sensitivity Factors
Sensitivity factors increase the susceptibility of an asset, community, or individual to the
negative impacts of climate change. To determine heat vulnerability in East Wenatchee,
the project team spatially analyzed several sensitivity factors in combination with heat
exposure results (Table 7).
Table 7. Factors Influencing Community Heat Sensitivity
Sensitivity Factors Summary
Children and older
adults
Older adults and young children are more sensitive to heat because their
bodies are less efficient at temperature regulation and are sometimes
reliant on others for care.
Low-income
households
Low-income households are more sensitive to extreme heat because they
often live in older housing stock and may not have the resources to cool
off during hot days.
Residents with
existing health
conditions
People with chronic illnesses face heightened risks during heatwaves as
some types of chronic conditions – such as COPD and diabetes – can make
an individual more susceptible to acute health impacts from extreme heat.
Tree canopy Areas with little tree cover are often hotter, creating a heat island effect.
Limited transit
access*
Lack of transit or mobility limitations makes it difficult for people to access
cooling centers or evacuate during extreme heat events.
Language barriers* Linguistic isolation increases vulnerability to climate impacts by hindering
access to emergency communication services that provide critical
information during heatwaves and other emergencies.
Residents with
immigration
concerns*
Immigration concerns for one or more family members may prevent the
entire household from travelling to escape heat events, visiting cooling
centers, or seeking in-home cooling assistance.
*These Sensitivity Factors were not assessed by block group due to data availability and lack of geographic variation. See
Additional Heat Sensitivity Factors for more information.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Heat Vulnerability for Sensitive Communities
Children and older adults, low-income households, residents with existing health
conditions, and tree canopy were analyzed in more detail by block group to demonstrate
social sensitivity to heat impacts. These four indicators were selected because they:
• Show variation across the city to inform specific planning and policy decisions;
• Are available at a block group scale; and
• Contribute to an understanding of vulnerability in East Wenatchee not addressed
by other drivers of vulnerability.
Additional sensitivity factors that did not meet these criteria for spatial analysis but will be
important for the City to consider are described in Additional Heat Sensitivity Factors
below.
CHILDREN AND OLDER ADULTS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability
Children and older adults
Older adults are typically more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat due to weakened
physiological responses, chronic health conditions, and decreased mobility, which make it
harder to regulate body temperature and access cooling resources. Additionally, cognitive
issues and social isolation may increase their risk of acute heat-related illnesses during
heatwaves (Dutchen, 2021). During the 2021 heat dome, most of the nearly one thousand
people who died from heat-related causes across the Pacific Northwest were older adults
(Dutchen, 2021). In East Wenatchee, 15% of the population is aged 65 and older, which is a
higher percentage than the state’s average (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022).
Children are more sensitive to extreme heat than adults because their temperature
regulation systems are less mature (e.g., sweating), causing children to heat up faster and
have less capacity to thermoregulate (Early Childhood Scientific Council on Equity and the
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Environment, 2023). In East Wenatchee, 28% of the population are under the age of 18,
25% higher than the rate in Washington (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022).
Figure 9. Prevalence of children and seniors and heat exposure. The children and older adults indicator
measures the percent seniors (65+) and children (0-17) by block group using data from the American
Community Survey 2017-2021 and Tree Equity Score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value was given to
block groups that have a percentage of children and older adults above (caption continues on next page)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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(caption continued from previous page, Figure 9) 45% of the population, a medium value represents between
30-45% of the population, and a low sensitivity value is below 30% of the population. Areas outside of the
UGA are more transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
All block groups in East Wenatchee demonstrate medium or high sensitivity to heat
impacts for the children and older adults indicator (Figure 9). Block groups located south
of Grant Road show a higher percentage of children and seniors compared to the rest of
the city, as well as the areas located above Wenatchi Landing. When comparing the
percentage of children and seniors to heat exposure across the city, North of Wenatchi
Landing, North of Grant Road Corridor, and Sand Canyon demonstrate the highest
vulnerability due to their combined sensitivity and exposure ratings.
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community
Vulnerability
Low-income households
Low-income households and lower quality housing types are disproportionately
vulnerable to extreme heat due to limited access to cooling resources such as air
conditioning and cooling centers (Chang, et al., 2023). In East Wenatchee, 6.9% of the
population is living below the poverty line (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). The city’s median
household income is $78,312, slightly below the US average median household income
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). In 2018, 23.5% of homeowners in the East Wenatchee were
paying more than 30% of their monthly income for housing (City of East Wenatchee,
2015). Those who experience housing cost burden typically have less capacity to afford
installation or maintenance of heat pumps, air conditioning, and HVAC systems or
improvements such as air sealing, insulation, and door or window replacements.
Exhibit A
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Figure 10. People experiencing poverty and heat exposure. The people experiencing poverty indicator
measure percentage of people living on incomes below 200% of the federally designated poverty line by
block group using data from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) and Tree Equity Score. A high
sensitivity value was given to block groups with poverty values above 30% of the population, a medium
value represents between 15-30%, and a low sensitivity value is below 15% of the population. Areas outside
of the UGA are more transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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In East Wenatchee, block groups located in the Grant Road Corridor and south of Grant
Road show a higher percentage of people living in poverty compared to the rest of the city
(Figure 10). When comparing the percentage of people experiencing poverty to heat
exposure across the city, Sand Canyon and the southern area of the UGA demonstrate the
highest heat vulnerability due to combined sensitivity and exposure ratings. Fancher
Heights and Wenatchi Landing demonstrate high heat exposure, but medium to low
poverty rates (compared to the rest of the city), so these areas are ranked at medium
vulnerability for the poverty and heat risk indicator.
RESIDENTS WITH EXISTING HEALTH CONDITIONS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community
Vulnerability
Health burden index
Individuals with chronic medical conditions – such as cardiovascular, cerebral, or
respiratory diseases – are more susceptible to extreme heat events. Extreme heat can
exacerbate these chronic health conditions, leading to more severe health consequences
that require additional resources and medical care during heatwaves (Chang, et al., 2023).
People with chronic health conditions can experience compounding health risks from co-
occurring hazards, such as poor air quality and wildfire smoke (Chang, et al., 2023).
According to the Chelan-Douglas Health-Focused CVA, East Wenatchee is considered
overburdened and highly impacted by air pollution, especially within the business district
and surrounding residential areas in the city. Elevated temperatures heighten the risk of
dehydration and cardiovascular strain and exacerbate the physiological impacts of poor
air quality. Combined heat and smoke events amplify the risk of asthma attacks,
respiratory distress, dehydration, cardiovascular strain, and heat exhaustion (Crimmins, et
al., 2016).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Figure 11. Wenatchee Valley Smoke (Benoit, 2024)
Together, these factors have led to thousands of deaths in the Pacific Northwest since
2018, particularly during the heat dome of 2021 (Vogel, et al., 2023). In East Wenatchee,
estimated prevalence of asthma among adults aged 18 years and older was 11.4% in
2022, higher than the national average of 10.9% (CDC Places). The estimated prevalence
of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart disease in the city was 6.6% and 6.4%
respectively in 2022, slightly below the national average of 8.7% and 8.1% (CDC Places).
Future heat-related health issues are expected to rise, disproportionately affecting those
with chronic illnesses (Chang, et al., 2023).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Figure 12. Health burden index and heat exposure. The health burden index measures prevalence of
poor mental health, poor physical health, asthma, and heart disease in an equally weighted index by block
group using data from the CDC Places Tool and Tree Equity Score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value
was given to block groups above 0.50 on the index, a medium value represents between 0.25-.50 on the
index, and a low sensitivity value represents below 0.25 on the index. Areas outside of the UGA are more
transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Block groups in East Wenatchee show mostly medium sensitivity to heat impacts based
on the health burden indicator, with a few high values around Grant Road Corridor and
low values Northwest of Sand Canyon (Figure 12). When comparing health burden with
heat exposure, no block groups demonstrate high exposure and high sensitivity, but
several block groups around Sand Canyon, Grant Road Corridor, North of Wenatchi
Landing, and Fancher Heights demonstrate medium/high health burden rates and
medium/high heat exposure.
TREE CANOPY DEFICIENCY
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community
Vulnerability
Tree canopy deficiency
Urban areas with a lot of asphalt, concrete, and few trees can create an urban heat island
(UHI) effect, which can dramatically increase heat exposure for communities (Vogel, et al.,
2023). Areas that experience the UHI effect typically are in city cores or near industrial
areas that lack tree canopy and green infrastructure, like parks. Additionally, long-
standing disparities in investments have led to correlation between low quality housing
and UHIs, with these areas typically experiencing higher levels of impervious surfaces,
reduced green space, and higher surface temperatures (Chang, et al., 2023). Several block
groups in the city have tree canopy coverage below the goal of 15%, with some areas as
low as 5% (American Forests, 2024).
Exhibit A
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Figure 13. Tree canopy deficiency and heat exposure. The tree canopy indicator measures % tree canopy
by block group using data from the Tree Equity score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value was given to
block groups below 10% canopy coverage, a medium value represents between 10-15% canopy coverage,
and a low sensitivity value is above 15% canopy coverage. Areas outside of the UGA are more transparent in
color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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Block groups located in East Wenatchee show mostly medium to high sensitivity to heat
impacts based on the tree canopy deficiency indicator (Figure 13). It is important to note
that East Wenatchee is part of the Channeled Scablands, a shrub-steppe ecosystem that
naturally has fewer trees compared to more temperate regions. Despite this, areas such
as Fancher Heights and the commercial area around Valley Mall Parkway demonstrate
high tree canopy deficiency compared to the rest of the city, with a few lower values north
of that commercial area, and medium values in the rest of the city. When comparing tree
canopy deficiency with heat exposure, the region around Fancher Heights shows high
exposure and high sensitivity, and block groups North of Wenatchi Landing and the West
side of Grant Road Corridor demonstrate medium/high tree canopy deficiency and
medium/high heat exposure. This reflects both the natural landscape and the added
challenges of urban development in a desert environment.
ADDITIONAL HEAT SENSITIVITY FACTORS
The following community sensitivity factors for heat vulnerability are not spatially
analyzed due to a lack of data availability at the block group level and overlapping results
with the previous heat sensitivity indicators. However, the City may consider these factors
when developing community engagement tactics and resilience policies for the Climate
Resilience Chapter.
Limited transit access or mobility
Limited mobility or transit access creates challenges for communities during heatwaves,
particularly for the elderly, low-income individuals, and people with mobility impairments.
During extreme heat events, these individuals may have difficulty traveling to cooling
centers or other cooling resources due to transportation limitations or physical health
challenges (Chang, et al., 2023). East Wenatchee has some public transit options, such as
the Chelan-Douglas Public Transportation Benefit Area that serves Chelan and most of
Douglas County, including the Greater East Wenatchee Area (City of East Wenatchee,
2015). Car ownership in East Wenatchee, WA is approximately the same as the national
average, with an average of 2 cars per household and above 90% ownership (ACS Survey
5-year estimate 2022). According to the WA Transit Access Map, only 2% of the population
of East Wenatchee has access to high frequency transit (every 15-minutes) during
weekday commute times. Additionally, on average, a typical household in East Wenatchee,
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
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WA spends 49% of their income on housing and transportation (Center for Neighborhood
Technology & Front and Centered, 2022). Documenting transportation burden can
support policies to reduce these disparities to increase access to essential resources like
medical care, food, and cooling centers.
Figure 14. Bus in Downtown East Wenatchee (Tuason, Link Bus in Downtown East Wenatchee Washington,
2013)
Primary language other than English
In communities with high levels of linguistic isolation, there are growing concerns about
the impact of climate change, particularly regarding access to essential emergency
communication services. Language barriers can make it difficult for individuals to
understand warnings and safety guidelines during climate-related emergencies, such as
heatwaves, floods, or wildfires (LA County, 2021). In East Wenatchee, 25.7% of the
population speaks a language other than English at home (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022).
Additionally, 11.7% of people in the city speak English less than very well, compared to
7.9% across Washington State (US Census Bureau, 2023).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 41
Residents with immigration concerns
During climate events, undocumented workers may struggle to access emergency
shelters, healthcare, worker protections, and disaster relief funds, and fear of their
immigration status can prevent them from seeking help even when services are available.
Additionally, as described above, official emergency alerts may not reach non-English
speakers, which may require translating evacuation and other emergency notices through
social media, community radio, or other avenues (Mendez, 2020). More specifically,
immigration concerns for one or more family members in the city may prevent the entire
household from travelling to escape heat events, visiting cooling centers, or seeking in-
home cooling assistance (e.g., AC donations) (CPAT Input).
Community Adaptive Capacity
East Wenatchee’s Comprehensive Plan outlines the City’s plan to provide safe, affordable,
and diverse housing options and social services for all income levels (City of East
Wenatchee, 2015). Policies outlined in the Housing Chapter are specifically targeted to
support housing for low-income households, older adults, and those with physical
disabilities, all of whom are especially vulnerable to extreme heat. These policies can
improve the adaptive capacity of these populations by boosting access to housing and
social services, which can enhance resilience to climate impacts such as extreme heat. The
Transportation Chapter prioritizes safety, accessibility, and reliability to meet the needs of
the community, especially as the population grows. These policies can mitigate mobility
challenges for older adults, individuals with limited transit access, and those with
disabilities or mobility barriers, providing improved access to cooling centers, shaded
spaces, and water resources during heatwaves.
The City’s Comprehensive Plan is limited in its mention of tree cover or canopy, which is a
significant factor in driving the urban heat island effect (City of East Wenatchee, 2015).
However, design criteria were established to encourage the planting of street trees along
major corridors during commercial development. Additionally, the Open Space and
Recreation Chapter emphasizes preserving parks and open spaces, which can provide
shaded areas that help mitigate heat exposure for residents.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 42
Figure 15. Pangborn Herndon Memorial Park (Irwin, 2010)
Our Valley Our Future, a community-based organization that engages and collaborates
with the people and organizations of the Wenatchee Valley, developed a five-year Action
Plan for the years 2022-26 (Our Valley Our Future, 2022). The plan was developed by the
residents of the region and backed by community partners from the private sector,
government institutions, public agencies, nonprofit organizations, and community groups.
The Action Plan enhances East Wenatchee's adaptive capacity for extreme heat by
prioritizing investments in community infrastructure and housing – such as supportive
housing and heat-resilient shelters – that address the needs of sensitive populations.
Additionally, the Action Plan promotes the development of outdoor community spaces
and recreational facilities, which can serve as cooling refuges during extreme heat events
(Our Valley Our Future, 2022). By enhancing walkability, public transportation, and access
to recreational resources, the Action Plan improves mobility and heat resilience for
residents with limited transit options or physical mobility challenges. The Wenatchee
YMCA is also launching a new outdoor education program for underserved youth, with a
focus on biking. In partnership with Sustainable NCW, the YMCA is also introducing a
mobile bike co-op that offers bike safety, repair education, and free bikes to youth, with
initial funding from a WDOE air quality grant. This project aims to improve access to
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 43
outdoor recreation and promote healthier, more active lifestyles to improve social
cohesion and resilience for the community’s youth (CPAT Input).
Physical Asset Vulnerability to Heat
This section describes heat exposure, sensitivity factors, and adaptative capacity for 49
key physical assets in East Wenatchee based on asset category. This includes the physical
design, location, and environmental factors that contribute to an asset or infrastructure’s
vulnerability to heat impacts.
The analysis considers infrastructure characteristics and other factors that contribute to
vulnerability, as well as the spatial distribution of assets that are more exposed to
extreme heat (Figure 16) and the sensitivity factors affecting these assets.
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Physical Asset
Vulnerability
See Heat Exposure of City Assets Map on next page
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 44
Figure 16. Heat Exposure of City Assets. Heat exposure was determined through a heat risk index derived
from land surface temperature data from the USGS.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 45
Sensitivity Factors
To determine sensitivity for assets in East Wenatchee, the project team provided a
qualitative assessment of heat sensitivity factors (Table 8).
Table 8. Physical Asset Drivers of Heat Vulnerability
Sensitivity Factors Summary
Building age and
condition
Older buildings or buildings in poor condition often lack air conditioning or
insulation, making the building and its occupants more exposed to impacts
of extreme heat.
Impervious surfaces High concentrations of impervious surfaces, like roads and buildings in
commercial zones, increase heat retention and exacerbate the urban heat
island effect, making areas more exposed to extreme heat.
Transportation
infrastructure age
and condition
Extreme heat can damage aging transportation infrastructure, increasing
maintenance needs and safety risks.
Building age and condition
The layout, design, and materials used in building construction can affect how a structure
is able to cope and withstand extreme heat. For example, older buildings or poorly
insulated structures can experience higher internal temperatures because it is easier to
retain heat and harder to cool internal temperatures (LA County, 2021). The housing stock
within the city trends older than in the County—housing built after 2000 makes up 22% of
the Douglas County housing stock and only 17% of City housing stock (City of East
Wenatchee, 2015).
Mobile homes and older multifamily housing are particularly susceptible to high internal
temperatures during heat events because of the factors above and because their high
density and shared walls can make it harder to cool individual units during heatwaves (LA
County, 2021). According to the 2010 Census, 15% of the housing units in Douglas County
and 31% of the housing units in East Wenatchee were in multifamily buildings. The City
reports having six mobile home parks and eight low-income housing developments.
Impervious surfaces
Areas with a high concentration of buildings, roads, and vehicles – especially areas with
dark surfaces and little vegetation – can enhance the urban heat island effect and make
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 46
urban communities more susceptible to extreme heat events. The southwest area of East
Wenatchee along the river, designated as a commercial zone and business district, has
higher levels of impervious surfaces compared to other areas of the city (City of East
Wenatchee, 2015).
Transportation infrastructure age and condition
Extreme heat can weaken and damage transportation infrastructure by causing
pavement, bridges, bicycle lanes, and sidewalks to crack and deform, leading to increased
maintenance needs and potential safety hazards. Effective management of public
transportation systems helps preserve infrastructure and ensures continued mobility,
reducing the need for costly replacements in the face of climate challenges (Chang, et al.,
2023; City of East Wenatchee, 2015). Roadway or pavement condition within the East
Wenatchee UGA is considered in fair to good condition (Figure 17) (City of East
Wenatchee, 2015). Pedestrian infrastructure in the city is in poorer condition, with many
pedestrian areas possessing only partial to no sidewalk infrastructure, impeding safe and
efficient mobility options for residents during heat waves (Figure 18).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 47
Figure 17. Roadway Condition (Transportation 2040)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 48
Figure 18. Pedestrian Mobility Performance (Transportation 2040)
Adaptive Capacity of Physical Assets
While East Wenatchee has made progress in developing adaptive capacity strategies, such
as improving critical infrastructure and supporting community facilities, bolstering the
resilience of physical assets poses challenges, particularly roads and transportation
networks. Relocating roads or major infrastructure is often not a feasible option due to
their essential role in the community and the significant costs involved. Furthermore, heat
risk challenges are widespread and impact multiple areas of the city, making it difficult to
develop comprehensive solutions.
However, within the city and UGA, several critical public facilities support adaptive
capacity such as airports, transportation facilities, solid waste handling facilities, mental
and physical health facilities, and group homes (City of East Wenatchee, 2015).
Additionally, there are community facilities which bolster adaptive capacity by providing
essential community services and continuity during and after climate events. For example,
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 49
there is one library in the Greater East Wenatchee Area located in the East Wenatchee City
Hall Building and nine schools within the UGA (City of East Wenatchee, 2015). The
Eastmont Junior High School and Clovis Point Elementary School are fairly new buildings,
and over the past few years, the Eastmont School District has made major improvements
to the Eastmont High School, Sterling Middle School, and the Ulysses S. Grant Elementary
School. While the school district has made significant improvements to some of these
buildings in recent years, it has faced challenges securing funding for further
infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, local non-profits, such as food banks and shelters,
play a crucial role in supporting the community during climate events, providing essential
services to help residents cope with extreme heat and other climate-related stresses (City
of East Wenatchee, 2015).
Figure 19. East Wenatchee Green Space (Tuason, East Wenatchee from Apple Capital Loop Trail
Washington, 2011)
The City has also been involved in planning processes that bolster adaptive capacity,
including the Our Valley Our Future initiative. This emphasizes ongoing investment in
transportation infrastructure, with a focus on improving roads, traffic flow, and
walkability, which can help reduce heat exposure by providing better mobility (Our Valley
Our Future, 2022). East Wenatchee’s Comprehensive Plan further ensures that
transportation policies maintain a safe, efficient, and accessible mobility network,
supporting community resilience to heat. Additionally, the Comprehensive Plan’s efforts
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 50
to preserve open spaces help mitigate heat by maintaining green spaces that buffer
against extreme conditions. The Douglas County Hazard Mitigation Plan identifies critical
assets, such as water treatment and fire prevention facilities, and outlines strategies for
upgrading infrastructure to improve insulation and temperature control, enhancing
resilience to both extreme heat and cold events (Douglas County, 2019).
While the City has implemented some infrastructure improvements and implementation
strategies to improve adaptive capacity for heat impacts, additional efforts are needed to
meet future heat challenges and develop a comprehensive, multifaceted approach to
enhance resilience for essential infrastructure in the city.
Exhibit A
| Page 51
Vulnerability to Extreme
Precipitation and Flooding
Extreme precipitation and flooding pose moderate risks to East Wenatchee’s population
and physical assets. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense
rainfall events, which will likely manifest as thunderstorms or heavy rain events in East
Wenatchee. These events can overwhelm drainage systems and lead to flash floods,
especially in low-lying developments, which can damage critical infrastructure and disrupt
essential services (Chang, et al., 2023). Transportation networks, including roads, bridges,
and transit systems, may also experience damage, further hindering emergency services
and increasing maintenance costs.
Certain communities and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of
extreme precipitation and flooding, exacerbating existing disparities. For instance, older
adults, particularly those living in poverty or with chronic conditions, face heightened risks
during flooding events due to mobility challenges and increased susceptibility to mold and
infections (Douglas County, 2019). Low-income households and renters often lack the
financial resources to prepare for or recover from flooding, and unhoused individuals
may lack basic protections against water exposure (LA County, 2021). East Wenatchee has
relatively high rates of poverty, asthma, and limited English-speaking households, and
these residents are typically more sensitive to flooding hazards and susceptible to adverse
impacts (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022; WA Department of Ecology Air Quality Program, 2023).
Physical factors, such as stormwater drainage issues, impervious surfaces, and
inadequate floodplain buffers, make city assets vulnerable to flooding, especially in low-
lying areas (Chelan County, 2020; Douglas County, 2019).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 52
Figure 20. Old Wenatchee Bridge (Flickr, 2014)
Understanding these risks is essential for assessing East Wenatchee’s overall vulnerability
to extreme precipitation and flooding. This section explores projected precipitation
trends, as well as the extent to which city assets and communities are exposed to
flooding. It also examines key factors – such as income level, health conditions,
impervious surfaces, and stormwater drainage capacity – that contribute to heightened
sensitivity among residents and physical assets. Finally, this section evaluates East
Wenatchee’s ability to adapt to these challenges, and opportunities to build resilience.
Flooding Trends and Projections
Precipitation in Wenatchee Valley will continue to be subject to year-to-year variability.
However, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to
increase across the region, in addition to more winter precipitation falling as rain rather
than snow (Chang, et al., 2023; Chelan County, 2020). This will increase the frequency and
intensity of rain-on-snow (ROS) and rapid snowmelt flooding due to warmer winter
temperatures. While projections of annual precipitation are variable, Douglas County is
projected to experience an increase in total annual precipitation by mid-century, based on
an RCP 8.5 scenario (Table 9).
Table 9. Annual Precipitation in Douglas County. Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington (Salathé, E.P. et al., 2010). 2050-2079 2070-2099
Percent change in average total annual precipitation for future
30-year periods compared to the 1980-2009 average.
19.1%*
(12.6 to 28.4%)
24.7%*
(12.9 to 37%)
*Percent is the model median. The percentages in parentheses represent the model range (10th to 90th percentile).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 53
Seasonal precipitation projections for areas east of the Cascades show mixed trends, with
most models predicting increases in winter, spring, and fall precipitation, alongside
decreases in summer precipitation. Under a high emissions scenario, winter precipitation
is expected to rise by 8.5% by the 2050s and 14.6% by the 2080s, as illustrated in Figure 21
(Rogers, 2021).
Figure 21. Projected change in summer and winter precipitation (%) for areas east of the Cascades in the
2050s and 2080s relative to 1950-1999 for a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) (Rogers, 2021).
These precipitation changes, especially increased precipitation in winter months, will likely
result in an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in East Wenatchee in areas
along the Columbia River and in the floodplain (Chelan County, 2020). In addition, rapid
snowmelt driven by higher winter and summer temperatures could result in increased
flooding as the local snowpack melts faster and earlier in the season. East Wenatchee may
experience more frequent flash flooding events in low-lying developments, heavily
modified riparian areas, localized areas from highly modified draws and canyons, and on
roadways with poor drainage (Douglas County, 2019).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 54
Flood Exposure in East Wenatchee
By mapping the relationship between assets, communities, and potential flood scenarios,
this analysis provides an understanding of city assets and population vulnerability to
current and future flood exposure, exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Assets and
residents located in the Sand Canyon 4, Grant Road Corridor, and South of Grant Road
areas of East Wenatchee face higher flood exposure (Figure 22). Wenatchi Landing,
Francher Heights, and the eastern portions of the city have low flood exposure.
4 See Appendix 4. City of East Wenatchee UGA Areas for reference of area locations.
See Flood Exposure Map on next page
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 55
Figure 22. Flood Exposure in East Wenatchee. Flood exposure was determined using data from FEMA
flood maps containing both the 100- and 500-year floodplain. For the full methodology, please refer to Flood
Mapping Methodology. Areas outside of the UGA are more transparent in color to encourage focus within
the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 56
Community Vulnerability to Flooding
This CVA evaluates community sensitivity factors and analyzes them spatially alongside
flood exposure data to determine community vulnerability to flooding. Additionally, this
assessment examines East Wenatchee’s capacity to adapt to community vulnerability.
Sensitivity Factors
This section outlines sensitivity factors for communities and presents the results of the
community sensitivity analysis. The analysis spatially examined the distribution of climate-
sensitive populations in East Wenatchee and their exposure to flooding.
Table 10. Factors Influencing Community Flood Sensitivity
Sensitivity Factors Summary
Children and
older adults
Children are sensitive to flooding due to developing bodily systems, while
older adults are sensitive due to health conditions and mobility limitations.
Assisted care facilities and schools may face additional risks from evacuation
delays and mold exposure.
Low-income
households
Low-income households face heightened vulnerability to extreme precipitation
and flooding due to typical lack of flood insurance, poorer housing conditions,
and financial barriers limiting preparedness, response, and recovery.
Residents with
existing health
conditions
Residents with existing health conditions, particularly those with suppressed
immune systems, lung diseases, or chronic respiratory issues, face heightened
risks from extreme precipitation and flooding. These risks are largely due to
increased sensitivity to mold which can occur after flooding.
Tree canopy Tree canopy deficiency may increase community vulnerability to flooding
during intense rainfall events, as trees can reduce stormwater runoff.
Renters and
unhoused
individuals*
Renters and unhoused individuals face heightened sensitivity to flooding due
to financial barriers, lack of legal flood risk notification, lack of or insufficient
insurance coverage, and increased exposure to water and mold.
Limited transit
access or
mobility*
Flooding may waterlog bus stops, block streets, and hinder access to
sidewalks, worsening transit disruptions and creating additional challenges for
individuals with limited transited access or mobility.
Language
barriers*
Communities with limited English proficiency are more sensitive to climate-
related emergencies due to language barriers, limited access to critical
information, social isolation, and racial discrimination.
*These Sensitivity Factors were not assessed by block group due to data availability and lack of geographic variation. See Additional Extreme
Precipitation and Flooding Sensitivity Factors for more information.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 57
Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Vulnerability for Sensitive
Communities
CHILDREN AND OLDER ADULTS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability
Children and older adults
Older adults are particularly vulnerable to the effects of flooding due to chronic health
conditions and limited mobility. Those living in poverty or with specific chronic conditions
are at higher risk of hospitalization during or immediately after extreme weather events
(National Institutes of Aging, 2022). Additionally, assisted care facilities housing older
adults may face delays in evacuation during emergencies (Douglas County, 2019).
Children are also more susceptible to climate impacts, such as flooding, because their
nervous, immune, and other bodily systems are still developing (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, n.d.). Following extreme precipitation or flooding events, mold can
become a serious issue in places like assisted care centers and schools, requiring
additional precautions in facilities with vulnerable populations (Douglas County, 2019).
In East Wenatchee, 15% of the population is 65 years and older (U.S. Census Bureau,
2022). Additionally, Eastmont School District, which serves 6,178 students and is primarily
located in East Wenatchee, lies within flash flood zones (Douglas County, 2019).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 58
Figure 23. Prevalence of children and seniors and flood exposure. The children and older adults
indicator measures the percent of seniors (65+) and children (0-17) by block group using data from the
American Community Survey 2017-2021 and Tree Equity Score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value
was given to block groups with values above 45% of the population, a medium value represents between
30-45% of the population, and a low sensitivity value is below 30% of the population. Areas outside of the
UGA are more transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 59
The prevalence of children and seniors in relation to flood exposure is varied across East
Wenatchee (Figure 23). There is a higher percentage of children and seniors in high flood
exposure locations in the block groups south of Grant Road and in the southwest Grant
Road Corridor. Additionally, many of the block groups in the Grant Road Corridor have a
medium prevalence of children and seniors and high flood exposure. These populations
will be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme precipitation and flooding caused
by climate change. While the block groups in the Wenatchi Landing, Sand Canyon, and
eastern areas of the city also have a high prevalence of children and seniors, these areas
have low flood exposure. Nevertheless, isolated flooding can occur in areas with low flood
exposure due to lack of stormwater drainage infrastructure and capacity.
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability
Low-income households
Figure 24. Wenatchee Flooding (The Wenatchee World, 2010)
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 60
Low-income households can face heightened vulnerability to extreme precipitation and
flooding due to financial and systemic barriers. Limited financial resources make it
challenging to afford necessary updates to prepare for flooding, such as elevating or dry
floodproofing (Office of Chehalis Basin; Washington Department of Ecology, 2020).
Additionally, flood insurance is often costly, leaving many with a lack of or insufficient
insurance coverage.
Low-income households also struggle to respond to and recover from flooding, such as
covering costs for transportation or temporary housing (LA County, 2021). Many low-
income individuals live in buildings without proper ventilation or access to dehumidifiers,
increasing post-flood health risks such as mold. In East Wenatchee, 6.9% of residents live
below the poverty line (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). The city’s median household income is
$78,312, which is slightly below the national median (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). In 2018,
23.5% of homeowners and 41% of renters in East Wenatchee spent more than 30% of
their monthly income on housing costs, a common indicator of cost-burdened households
(City of East Wenatchee, 2015).
See People Experiencing Poverty and Flood Exposure Map on next page
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 61
Figure 25. People experiencing poverty and flood exposure. The people experiencing poverty indicator
measures percentage of people living on incomes below 200% of the federally designated poverty line by
block group using data from the 2022 American Community Survey and Tree Equity Score. A high sensitivity
value was given to block groups with poverty values above 30% of the population, a medium value
represents between 15-30%, and a low sensitivity value is below 15% of the population. Areas outside of the
UGA are more transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 62
The prevalence of poverty and flood exposure is diverse across East Wenatchee (Figure
25). The block groups located in the northwest Sand Canyon, Grant Road Corridor, and
South of Grant Road areas have high poverty rates and high exposure to flooding. While
the block groups located in Sand Canyon and north of the Grant Road Corridor also have
high prevalence of poverty, both areas have low flood exposure. Even in areas with low
flood exposure, inadequate stormwater drainage infrastructure and limited capacity can
lead to isolated flooding. Block groups in Wenatchi Landing, Francher Heights, and north
of Grant Road Corridor have both low poverty and low flood exposure.
RESIDENTS WITH EXISTING HEALTH CONDITIONS
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability
Chronic health conditions
Residents with existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of
extreme precipitation and flooding, often due to mold that proliferates in damp
environments following these events. Individuals with suppressed immune systems or
underlying lung diseases face a heightened risk of fungal infections, and those with
chronic respiratory diseases may have trouble breathing (U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, n.d.). These risks are especially pronounced for people with preexisting conditions
who also spend time in buildings lacking proper ventilation or access to dehumidifiers (LA
County, 2021). In East Wenatchee, the estimated asthma prevalence among adults aged
18 and older was 11.4% in 2022, exceeding the national average of 10.9% (Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention & National Center for Chronic Disease and Health
Promotion, 2024). The estimated prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
and heart disease was 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively, which are slightly lower than the
national averages of 8.7% and 8.1% (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention &
National Center for Chronic Disease and Health Promotion, 2024).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 63
Figure 26. Health burden index and flood exposure. The health burden index measures prevalence of
poor mental health, poor physical health, asthma, and heart disease in an equally weighted index by block
group using data from the CDC Places Tool and Tree Equity Score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value
was given to block groups above 0.50 on the index, a medium value represents between 0.25-50 on the
index, and a low sensitivity value represents below 0.25 on the index. Areas outside of the UGA are more
transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 64
The prevalence of health burdens and flood exposure is mixed across East Wenatchee
(Figure 26). The Grant Road Corridor is the only area of the city with both a high health
burden and high flood exposure. South of Grant Road and north of Sand Canyon have
medium health burden and high flood exposure. While the area northwest of Grant Road
Corridor also has a high health burden, there is low flood exposure. Flooding can still
occur in areas with low overall flood exposure if stormwater drainage infrastructure is
insufficient or lacks capacity.
TREE CANOPY DEFICIENCY
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Community Vulnerability
Tree canopy deficiency
Trees can mitigate flooding by reducing stormwater runoff, and a lack of tree canopy can
heighten the risk of urban flooding during intense rainfall events (Center for Urban Forest
Research, Pacific Southwest Research Station, & USDA Forest Service, 2022). East
Wenatchee is part of the Channeled Scablands, a shrub-steppe ecosystem that naturally
has few trees, making it more reliant on planted tree canopy for flood mitigation (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 2010). Communities that have faced housing and
investment disparities often experience decreased tree coverage due to land-use
decisions that reinforced racial and economic discrimination (Chang, et al., 2023). Some
communities in East Wenatchee with less tree canopy may experience greater
vulnerability to flooding, although other physical sensitivity factors, such as stormwater
capacity, may impact the severity of flooding (Table 11). Several block groups in East
Wenatchee have tree canopy coverage below 15%, with some areas as low as 5%
(American Forests, 2024).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 65
Figure 27. Tree canopy deficiency and flood exposure. The tree canopy indicator measures % tree
canopy by block group using data from the Tree Equity score National Explorer. A high sensitivity value was
given to block groups below 10% canopy coverage, a medium value represents between 10-15% canopy
coverage, and a low sensitivity value is above 15% canopy coverage. Areas outside of the UGA are more
transparent in color to encourage focus within the City’s planning area.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 66
Tree canopy deficiency and flood exposure is varied across East Wenatchee (Figure 27).
The shrub-steppe ecosystem was considered when assessing tree canopy sensitivity.
Block groups with more than 15% tree canopy coverage – the target set by the Tree Equity
National Explorer – received a low sensitivity score. In other naturally forested regions of
the state, this threshold may be as high as 50%. The most western block group in the
Grant Road Corridor is the only area in East Wenatchee with both a high tree canopy
deficiency and high flood exposure. However, the Grant Road Corridor and South of Grant
Road have both medium tree canopy deficiency and high flood exposure. In contrast, the
Fancher Heights and airport block groups have high tree canopy deficiency, but low flood
exposure. The block groups in the Wenatchi Landing, Sand Canyon and areas between
Sand Canyon and Grant Road Corridor have a medium tree canopy deficiency and low
flood exposure. Areas with low flood exposure may still experience localized flooding due
to other physical sensitivity factors, such as insufficient stormwater drainage
infrastructure and capacity.
ADDITIONAL EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING SENSITIVITY
FACTORS
The following community sensitivity factors for flooding vulnerability are not spatially
analyzed due to a lack of data availability at the block group level and overlapping results
with the four indicators selected. However, the City may wish to consider these factors
when developing community engagement tactics and resilience policies for the Climate
Element and future climate planning processes.
Renters and unhoused individuals
Renters and unhoused individuals may be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of
extreme precipitation and flooding. In Washington State, renters are not legally required
to be notified of flood risks. Damage to personal belongings is typically not covered by
general renters or landlord insurance policies (Chehalis Basin Strategy, 2024). This can
make it difficult and financially burdensome for renters to prepare for and respond to
flooding. Additionally, unhoused individuals often lack proper waterproof protection,
increasing their exposure to water and subsequent mold (LA County, 2021). In East
Wenatchee, 40.2% of housing units are renter-occupied (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). As of
2023, at least 15 people living in East Wenatchee were unsheltered (Rattner, 2023).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 67
Limited transit access or mobility
Limited access to reliable transit or limited mobility significantly heightens an individual’s
vulnerability to extreme precipitation and flooding. Individuals without dependable
transportation often face worsened transit accessibility during flooding, as waterlogged
bus stops force riders to wait in unsafe or inaccessible locations, leading to missed buses.
Street blockages and adjusted transit routes further compound the issue (LA County,
2021). For people with disabilities and mobility challenges, navigating sidewalks becomes
increasingly difficult during heavy rainfall (LA County, 2021).
Car ownership in East Wenatchee is approximately the same as the national average, with
an average of 2 cars per household. A typical household in the city spends an average of
24% of its income on transportation (Center for Neighborhood Technology & Front and
Centered, 2022). However, access to high-frequency transit 5 is limited (ACS Survey 5-year
estimate 2022). While East Wenatchee does offer less frequent and free transit, during
weekday commute times, only 2% of the population can access high-frequency transit,
and at other times, no residents have access (Center for Neighborhood Technology &
Front and Centered, 2022).
Transportation mobility is also dependent on the condition of the system’s streets,
bridges, bicycle lanes, and sidewalks. Roadway or pavement conditions within the East
Wenatchee UGA are generally fair to good (City of East Wenatchee, 2015). There are
several areas throughout the city that have only partial or no sidewalk infrastructure, as
demonstrated above in Figure 19 (City of East Wenatchee, 2015). Limited transit, fair
roadway conditions, and poor sidewalk conditions increase individuals’ vulnerability to
extreme precipitation and flooding, especially for those with limited mobility. These
factors restrict safe and reliable transportation options during hazardous weather events,
leaving residents with few alternatives for evacuation or accessing essential services.
Primary language other than English
Communities where a primary language other than English is spoken face unique
challenges in responding to climate-related emergencies. Language barriers often hinder
5 High-frequency transit has average headways of 15 minutes or less (Center for Neighborhood Technology
& Front and Centered, 2022).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 68
access to critical health information and safety guidelines during events such as floods,
leaving these communities more vulnerable to environmental hazards and other impacts
of climate change. In East Wenatchee, 25.7% of residents speak a language other than
English at home (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). Additionally, 11.7% of people in the city speak
English less than very well, compared to 7.9% for WA State (US Census Bureau, 2023).
Social isolation and racial discrimination further compound these vulnerabilities,
increasing the risks associated with climate change (Washington Tracking Network &
Washington State Department of Health, n.d.).
Community Adaptive Capacity
East Wenatchee’s adaptive capacity to flooding impacts is supported by several key local
planning efforts. As previously noted, the East Wenatchee Comprehensive Plan aims to
provide safe, affordable, and diverse housing options for all income levels (City of East
Wenatchee, 2015). The policies outlined in the Housing Chapter support low-income
households, renters, and unhoused individuals, who are especially vulnerable to flooding,
to find stable and safe living conditions. The Transportation Chapter prioritizes safety and
accessibility, building adequate capacity to support growth, and providing reliable access.
These policies can mitigate flood-related challenges for older adults, individuals with
limited transit access, and those with disabilities or limited mobility.
The five-year Action Plan developed by Our Valley Our Future prioritizes measures to
expand affordable housing, increase rental inventory, and develop supportive housing for
unhoused residents (Our Valley Our Future, 2022). These efforts can help low-income
households and those experiencing homelessness adapt to their heightened vulnerability
to flooding. Additionally, the Action Plan outlines efforts to enhance walkability and public
transportation, which can improve mobility and flood resilience for residents with limited
transit options or physical mobility challenges (Our Valley Our Future, 2022).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 69
Physical Asset Vulnerability to Flooding
This section describes flood exposure, physical sensitivity factors, and adaptative capacity
for city assets in East Wenatchee. This includes assessing factors such as building age and
impervious surface coverage to determine overall flood vulnerability.
The analysis considers physical sensitivity characteristics that contribute to vulnerability,
as well as the spatial distribution of assets that are exposed to flooding (Figure 30). A total
of 49 assets were identified through City documents and City staff consultation, with an
emphasis on critical assets.
Category Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Physical Asset
Vulnerability
See Flood Exposure of City Assets Map on next page
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 70
Figure 28. Flood Exposure of City Assets. Flood risk was determined using the FEMA 100-year floodplain
(light blue) and 500-year floodplain (dark blue) maps. For the full methodology, please refer to Flood
Mapping Methodology.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 71
Sensitivity Factors
To assess flood vulnerability for physical assets, the project team provided a qualitative
evaluation of physical sensitivity factors (Table 11).
Table 11. Physical Sensitivity Factors to Flood
Sensitivity Factors Summary
Low-lying areas and the
floodplain
Low-lying areas and developed floodplains are more susceptible to
severe impacts from extreme precipitation and flooding as water
exceeds the absorptive capacity of the soil and the flow capacity of
channels, causing it to spill into the floodplain.
Stormwater design Extreme precipitation can overwhelm areas with inadequate or
poorly maintained stormwater drainage. The extent of flooding can
vary depending on channel capacity, vegetation ingrowth,
transportation infrastructure, and culvert size, design, and condition.
Building age, condition,
and location
Older or poorly maintained buildings are more vulnerable to damage
from extreme precipitation and flooding due to outdated plumbing,
inefficient drainage systems, and the susceptibility of certain
materials and designs.
Impervious surface
coverage and lack of
natural flood buffers
Impervious surfaces from development increase urban flooding risks
by reducing water infiltration and removing natural buffers like
wetlands and vegetation that help absorb floodwaters.
Low-lying areas and the floodplain
Low-lying areas and areas in the floodplain in East Wenatchee are likely to experience
more intense impacts due to extreme precipitation and flooding (Douglas County, 2019).
As water from extreme precipitation exceeds the absorptive capacity of the soil and the
flow capacity of channels, water moves beyond the floodway and enters the floodplain
(Douglas County, 2019).
Most city assets in East Wenatchee have a low risk of flooding due to their position in the
floodplain (Figure 31). Localized flooding can still occur in areas with low overall flood
exposure due to other physical sensitivity factors, as described below. However, two
assets – Confluence Health East Wenatchee Clinic (S45) and Mountain View Mobile Home
Park (R39) – are classified as medium risk. While our initial analysis indicated high flood
risk for the city’s three bridges (T47, T48, T49), staff feedback led to their exclusion from
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 72
this evaluation. Given that the Columbia River is dam-controlled, significant flood risk
would only arise in the event of a catastrophic dam failure.
Figure 29. Wenatchee Valley and Floodplain (Visit Chelan County, n.d.)
Stormwater design
Extreme precipitation may result in water flowing rapidly from higher elevations,
exceeding channel flow capacity, and collecting in areas with inadequate or poorly
maintained municipal stormwater drainage (Douglas County, 2019). The extent of flooding
can vary depending on channel capacity, vegetation ingrowth, and culvert size, design,
and condition. Newer, larger, and properly maintained culverts have more capacity to
accommodate flood events that occur due to climate change (Chelan County, 2020).
Additionally, features such as improperly sized road crossings, roads that disrupt
floodplain function, and infrastructure that intercepts precipitation and groundwater can
accelerate water movement into stream systems, increasing flood risks (Chelan County,
2020).
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 73
Figure 30. Flooding complaints received during September 2019 storm (East Wenatchee Staff, 2019).
In East Wenatchee, complaints about flooding tend to be localized and concentrated in
areas of the city with minimal stormwater infrastructure or lacking curbs or sidewalks. For
example, in a September 2019 storm, many storm complaints were from the eastern edge
of the city due to steep grades and no drainage infrastructure in the area (Figure 30).
Additionally, recent modeling conducted for the East Wenatchee Stormwater
Comprehensive Plan Update illustrates how flooding can occur outside the 100-year and
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 74
500-year floodplains due to lack of stormwater drainage and capacity. Under existing
conditions for a 100-year design storm, localized flooding may occur throughout the city
(Figure 31). For example, areas along Valley Mall Parkway may reach 100% peak flow
capacity and flood depths greater than 0.5 feet for a 100-year design storm due to
inadequate stormwater drainage.
Figure 31. Hydraulic conditions simulated by the 1D SWMM model under existing land use conditions for
100-year design storm. Darker red colors indicate a flood depth greater than 0.50 feet and 100% flow
capacity reached (City of East Wenatchee, 2023).
Building age, condition, and location
Buildings that are older or in poor condition may sustain more damage during extreme
precipitation and flooding (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2024). Older buildings
may have outdated plumbing and drainage systems that are less efficient at handling
large volumes of water during a flood, leading to increased water inundation. Additionally,
the layout, design, and materials used in construction can determine how vulnerable a
building is to extreme precipitation and flooding. Basements or areas below ground level
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 75
are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Whether the structure is masonry, brick faced, or
has wooden or vinyl siding can also impact how vulnerable a building is to impacts from
flooding (Office of Chehalis Basin; Washington Department of Ecology, 2020). Buildings
on a slab-on-grade foundation with masonry or brick facing are easier to make watertight
and wood can be prone to rot and mold (Office of Chehalis Basin; Washington
Department of Ecology, 2020). Over time, building materials like wood, concrete, and
masonry, if not properly maintained, can degrade, and become more susceptible to water
penetration and damage from floodwaters.
Impervious surface coverage and the lack of natural flood
buffers
The factors contributing to urban heat islands – such as water-impervious surfaces and a
lack of green spaces – also heighten the risk of urban flooding during extreme
precipitation events (Chang, et al., 2023). High percentages of paved areas and buildings
reduce water infiltration and increase runoff (Chelan County, 2020). This is further
exacerbated by inadequate soil absorption capacity in developed areas due to
compaction (Douglas County, 2019). Additionally, the loss of natural areas, such as
wetlands, floodplains, and vegetation, removes essential buffers that naturally slow and
absorb floodwaters (Chelan County, 2020). Areas with high impervious surface coverage
and a lack of natural flood buffers often have low tree canopy, reducing the areas’
capacity to reduce stormwater runoff (see the Tree canopy deficiency section in
Community Vulnerability to Flooding).
Adaptive Capacity of Physical Assets
East Wenatchee's adaptive capacity to extreme precipitation and flooding is supported by
several key planning efforts. As outlined in the Douglas County Hazard Mitigation Plan, the
County enhances flood resilience by enforcing modern building codes and floodplain
management practices (Douglas County, 2019). The County adopted the 2021
International Building and Fire Prevention Code, ensuring new structures meet flood-
proofing standards. Additionally, both Douglas County and East Wenatchee employ
floodplain managers who actively regulate development in flood-prone areas to minimize
future risks. The Hazard Mitigation Plan also identifies critical facilities in East
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 76
Wenatchee—such as water treatment and fire prevention facilities—and assesses their
vulnerability to hazards, including flash flooding and riverine flooding. Completed and
ongoing mitigation projects outlined in the plan, such as elevating structures, installing
rainwater retention basins, upgrading stormwater drainage, relocating vulnerable
structures, and raising transportation infrastructure, help reduce potential flood impacts
(Douglas County, 2019).
Figure 32. East Wenatchee Vineyards (City of East Wenatchee, n.d.)
East Wenatchee’s Comprehensive Plan further strengthens flood resilience by focusing on
preventing sprawling, low-density development, protecting natural flood buffers, and
ensuring efficient stormwater management (City of East Wenatchee, 2015). By limiting the
inappropriate conversion of undeveloped land, the plan helps reduce the expansion of
impervious surfaces that increase runoff and flood risk. It also sets goals for a surface and
stormwater management system that minimizes property damage from flooding.
Additionally, the plan prioritizes the preservation of open space, wetlands, and frequently
flooded areas to safeguard natural drainage systems and buffer against extreme
precipitation and flooding. Lastly, transportation policies ensure the city’s transit network
remains safe, efficient, and accessible during flood events.
In addition, East Wenatchee updated its Stormwater Comprehensive Plan in 2023 to
address infrastructure deficiencies, plan capital improvements, and ensure regulatory
compliance (City of East Wenatchee, 2023). The plan recommends 25 drainage and 16
water quality projects, with 24 capital improvements estimated to cost between $140,000
and $6.25 million over 16 years. The update also includes regulatory compliance
measures and staffing recommendations to meet state permit requirements. These
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 77
efforts will help mitigate flooding impacts caused by inadequate stormwater drainage and
capacity.
Beyond these plans, Our Valley Our Future’s five-year Action Plan reinforces East
Wenatchee’s commitment to promoting and incentivizing residential development in
downtown urban centers, aligning with the goals of its Comprehensive Plan.
Concentrating development in existing urban centers can help reduce sprawl into natural
areas and floodplains. However, the Action Plan also encourages riverfront development,
including housing, shops, and entertainment, which could pose flood risks if located
within the floodplain.
Together, the Douglas County Hazard Mitigation Plan, East Wenatchee Comprehensive
Plan, and Stormwater Comprehensive Plan provide a strong foundation for managing
flood risks by enhancing infrastructure, enforcing flood regulations, and preserving
natural flood buffers. To further strengthen its flood resilience, the City could consider
adopting goals and policies that promote Low Impact Development (LID). LID is a
stormwater and land-use management strategy designed to mimic natural hydrologic
conditions by emphasizing conservation, the use of on-site natural features, site planning,
and stormwater best management practices (Washington State Department of Ecology,
n.d.). Common LID practices include bio-retention, rain gardens, permeable pavements,
minimal excavation foundations, vegetated roofs, and rainwater harvesting. Integrating
LID into City planning could help reduce runoff and enhance the landscape’s natural
capacity to manage stormwater, further mitigating flood risks.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 78
Conclusion and Next Steps
Conclusion
The East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment highlights the city's exposure to
increasing climate risks, particularly extreme heat and flooding. Through analysis of
historical trends, climate projections, City staff discussions, and community engagement,
this assessment identifies vulnerabilities affecting both physical infrastructure and socially
vulnerable populations. The findings underscore the need for proactive resilience
strategies to protect residents, essential services, and critical infrastructure from future
climate impacts.
Extreme heat is expected to become more frequent and severe, with summer maximum
temperatures projected to rise significantly by the end of the century. Vulnerable
populations, including older adults, children, low-income households, and those with
preexisting health conditions, are at heightened risk of heat-related illnesses. Additionally,
areas with high impervious surfaces and low tree canopy coverage experience greater
heat exposure, exacerbating the urban heat island effect. Strategies such as expanding
tree canopy and vegetation, increasing access to cooling centers, and improving building
efficiency can help mitigate these impacts and protect public health.
Flooding from extreme precipitation and rapid snowmelt also poses risks to East
Wenatchee’s infrastructure and communities. Projections indicate an increase in heavy
rainfall events, which can overwhelm stormwater systems, damage critical infrastructure,
and displace residents in flood-prone areas. As with extreme heat, older adults, children,
low-income households, and those with preexisting health conditions are particularly
vulnerable to flooding and face more challenges preparing for or recovering from flooding
events. Investments in stormwater management, green infrastructure, and floodplain
protections will be crucial in reducing future flood risks.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 79
Figure 33. Columbia River in Wenatchee (Grant, 2009)
Efforts already underway support East Wenatchee’s ability to adapt to impacts from
extreme heat and flooding. This CVA complements regional planning efforts, including the
Chelan-Douglas Health-Focused CVA, the Douglas County Community Wildfire Protection
Plan, and the Douglas County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP). The
Chelan-Douglas Health-Focused CVA, still in development, examines the long-term health
impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations and aims to support action by
community-based organizations, local governments, and healthcare systems to bolster
resilience. The 2022 Douglas County Community Wildfire Protection Plan helps strengthen
resilience by assessing wildfire hazards, identifying at-risk communities, and providing
guidance for localized wildfire protection planning, while the 2019 Douglas County HMP
supports resilience by evaluating vulnerabilities to natural hazards like droughts, floods,
and wildfires, though it does not currently assess extreme heat.
This CVA builds on these plans by addressing gaps in understanding, particularly
regarding East Wenatchee’s exposure to heat and flooding. While these existing efforts
support East Wenatchee’s ability to adapt to extreme heat and flooding, continued
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 80
investment in climate resilience is essential. By incorporating this CVA into the City’s
Climate Element, East Wenatchee can establish clear policies and actions to further
enhance its climate resilience.
Next Steps
Next, the City will integrate findings from this CVA into the City’s Comprehensive Plan
Update, to both reflect the City’s goals and priorities and comply with Commerce’s Climate
Element guidance. The City will develop policies to address areas of vulnerability outlined
in this CVA, including protecting assets across the city, mitigating the social vulnerability of
communities in East Wenatchee, and integrating climate resilience considerations into city
planning. Additionally, this CVA may be used to inform future decision-making around
climate change and land use, zoning, infrastructure, housing, and policy decisions. The
report will serve as a resource to help decision-makers and the public identify priority
communities, understand proposed changes, and guide future projects to improve
climate resilience.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 81
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https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/fpg3h0lbwln2ctqjg7jg802h54ie19jx
Washington State Department of Ecology. (n.d.). Low Impact Development (LID) guidance.
Retrieved from Washington State Department of Ecology:
https://ecology.wa.gov/regulations-permits/guidance-technical-
assistance/stormwater-permittee-guidance-resources/low-impact-development-
guidance
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 87
Washington State Governor's Office. (2024). In Washington, new policies and tools ensure
climate action starts where environmental harm is greatest. Retrieved from Medium:
https://medium.com/wagovernor/in-washington-new-policies-and-tools-ensure-
climate-action-starts-where-environmental-harm-is-
d019d431f154#:~:text=Smoke%20from%20these%20fires%20spread,polar%20bear
s%2C%E2%80%9D%20says%20Inslee.
Washington Tracking Network, & Washington State Department of Health. (n.d.).
Washington Environmental Health Disparities Map. Retrieved August 1, 2024, from
Washington State Department of Health:
https://fortress.wa.gov/doh/wtnibl/WTNIBL/
Exhibit A
Page 88
Appendix 1: Vulnerability Scoring
Matrix
Vulnerability was rated as low, medium, or high based on a combination of exposure,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity assessments. The following scoring matrix was used to
determine low, medium, and high ratings for vulnerability across community sensitivity
indicators and physical assets (Table 12). More specifically, the project team determined
exposure based on the number of assets and block groups that were rated as low,
moderate, or high exposure to each climate impact. If around 50% or more of assets or
block groups fell into a specific rating for each indicator, that rating was assigned as the
overall exposure or sensitivity score for that indicator. For sensitivity of physical assets
and adaptive capacity ratings, the team used the qualitative data and information
gathered in the Vulnerability Assessment sections to determine scores. Overall
vulnerability was determined based on the combination of exposure, sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity scores – see Climate Vulnerability Framework for more information.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 89
Table 12. Vulnerability Assessment Matrix
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Most block
groups and
assets face low
to no exposure
from this impact.
Most block groups
demonstrate low values
for sensitivity indicator
(more than 50%). Assets
are not generally sensitive
to climate impact.
Robust plans in place with staffing
and resources for implementation.
Actions are being taken to address
the hazard and those actions
already have an impact.
Low climate risk and
high adaptive
capacity for a sector
means low overall
climate vulnerability.
Mod/Low
Most block
groups and
assets face
moderate
exposure from
this impact.
Most block groups
demonstrate moderate
values for sensitivity
indicators (more than
50%). Assets are
moderately sensitive to
climate impact.
Plans and resources are in place
that address climate issues but
may not account for future climate
impacts. There is staff capacity
and resources available to address
climate impacts.
Moderate climate
risk with some
capacity to address
those risks classifies
a sector as low to
moderate overall
climate vulnerability.
Mod/High
Most block
groups and
assets face high
exposure from
this impact.
Most block groups
demonstrate high values
for sensitivity indicator
(more than 50%). Assets
are sensitive to climate
impact.
The category may not have a plan
and lacks resources or has limited
redundancy. The City may have a
plan and some staff, but limited
resources to implement actions to
increase resiliency.
High climate risk
with low ability to
adapt to those risks
means high climate
vulnerability and an
area to focus climate
resilience strategies.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 90
Example
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Most block
groups and
assets face low
to no exposure
from this
impact.
+
Most block groups
demonstrate low
values for sensitivity
indicator (more than
50%). Assets are not
generally sensitive to
climate impact.
-
Robust plans in place with
staffing and resources for
implementation. Actions are
being taken to address the
hazard and those actions
already have an impact.
=
Low climate risk and
high adaptive capacity
for a sector means low
overall climate
vulnerability.
Mod/Low Vulnerability
Most block
groups and
assets face
moderate
exposure from
this impact.
+
Most block groups
demonstrate
moderate values for
sensitivity indicators
(more than 50%).
Assets are moderately
sensitive to climate
impact.
-
Plans and resources are in
place that address climate
issues but may not account
for future climate impacts.
There is staff capacity and
resources available to
address climate impacts.
=
Moderate climate risk
with some capacity to
address those risks
classifies a sector as
low to moderate
overall climate
vulnerability.
Mod/High Vulnerability
Most block
groups and
assets face
high exposure
from this
impact.
+
Most block groups
demonstrate high
values for sensitivity
indicator (more than
50%). Assets are
sensitive to climate
impact.
-
The category may not have a
plan and lacks resources or
has limited redundancy. The
City may have a plan and
some staff, but limited
resources to implement
actions to increase resiliency.
=
High climate risk with
low ability to adapt to
those risks means high
climate vulnerability
and an area to focus
climate resilience
strategies.
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 91
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts
Summary
See next page for the Climate Impacts Summary Memorandum.
Exhibit A
The East Wenatchee Climate Element is supported with funding
from Washington’s Climate Commitment Act. The CCA supports
Washington’s climate action efforts by putting cap-and-invest
dollars to work reducing climate pollution, creating jobs, and
improving public health. Information about the CCA is available
at www.climate.wa.gov.
Memorandum
To Curtis Lillquist
City of East Wenatchee
From Abigail Lambert & Nicole Gutierrez
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc.
Date 10/10/2024
Subj Climate Impacts Assessment Summary
Overview
This climate impacts summary discusses historical trends and future climate projections to
provide a foundational understanding of how future changes in the climate and associated hazards
will affect East Wenatchee now and in the future. Without ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction measures across the region and globe, East Wenatchee is expected to experience the
following impacts (detailed in the Summary of Climate Impacts section):
•Extreme Heat: Higher annual average temperatures, with especially high temperature
increases during the summer months (up to a 11.4°F increase by the end of the century).
•Drought and Snowpack: Declining summer precipitation and increased winter
temperatures resulting in reduced snowpack, leading to more frequent, longer, and severe
regional droughts.
•Wildfire, Smoke, and Air Quality: Increased wildfire activity due to extreme heat and
heighted drought, resulting in increased smoke and poor air quality.
•Extreme Precipitation and Flooding: Increased flooding due to rapid snow melt and more
frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, such as long-duration rain events.
The purpose of the climate impacts summary is to identify historical and projected climate impacts
in order to support the climate gaps and opportunities assessment of East Wenatchee’s
Comprehensive Plan and inform the City’s climate vulnerability assessment (CVA). These
components will ultimately inform the Climate Resilience Sub-element in the Comprehensive Plan.
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.1
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 2
Legislative Background
WA House Bill (HB) 1181
The Washington Growth Management Act (GMA) was amended in 2023 under Washington House
Bill (HB) 1181, requiring cities and counties to integrate climate policies1 into comprehensive plan
updates. For the city of East Wenatchee, these required policy changes must address climate
impacts and increase resilience across local sectors. Jurisdictions must adopt climate policies
through a framework consistent with the Department of Commerce’s (“Commerce”) Climate
Planning Guidance (Washington Department of Commerce, 2023).
Climate Planning Guidance in WA
To comply with State guidance, the first step in developing a Climate Resilience Sub-element is
exploring climate impacts most prevalent to your community following Commerce’s Resilience
Guidance framework (Washington Department of Commerce, 2023). This guidance integrates the
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit's framework and best practices from various organizations such as
the Association of Washington Cities (AWC), Municipal Research and Services Center of
Washington (MRSC), and the American Planning Association (APA). Commerce’s framework offers
a flexible approach for jurisdictions to incorporate the latest available climate science, assess
local impacts, and consider resilience policy options. This climate impacts summary mirrors
Commerce’s “Climate Element Workbook” Step 3 Task 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, with the goal of
exploring how expected changes in the climate could exacerbate natural hazards (e.g., droughts,
floods, etc.) and impact critical assets and sectors (e.g., ecosystems, infrastructure, public health,
etc.).
Climate Impacts Assessment
Methodology
To perform this climate impacts assessment, Cascadia Consulting Group (“Cascadia”) used a
variety of established and peer-reviewed resources—including the University of Washington’s
Climate Impacts Group’s Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington, NOAA National Centers for
Environmental Information WA State Climate Summary, the 5th National Climate Assessment’s
Northwest Chapter, and other relevant studies and datasets—to identify observed and projected
climate trends relevant for East Wenatchee. This climate impacts assessment will inform the next
phase of hazard vulnerability and risk analysis by building considerations for future changes in
hazard risk due to climate change.
1 Climate resilience policies are required for all jurisdictions planning under the GMA. GHG emission
reduction policies are only required for 11 of the fastest growing counties and cities within them.
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. C2
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 3
Throughout the climate impacts and vulnerability assessment process, Cascadia will work with
East Wenatchee to come to a shared agreement and understanding of the climate impacts and
hazards most relevant to the city to determine priority assets that may be exposed to climate
change.
Climate Drivers and Variability
Climate change refers to the long-term shifting of environmental conditions and weather patterns .
Climate change is primarily caused by human activity, particularly the emission of GHGs from
burning fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric GHGs, notably carbon emissions, have driven the
increase in land and ocean temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, leading to various
biophysical impacts such as more frequent and intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms, droughts,
melting glaciers, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification (Marvel, et al., 2023).
Natural feedback processes like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation contribute to variations in air temperature, extreme weather events, precipitation, and
ocean conditions over interannual and interdecadal periods. However, the rate of climate change
caused by human activities far exceeds any natural variability from these processes (Perlwitz,
Knutson, Kossin, & LeGrande, 2017).
Climate Scenarios and Projection Models
The rise in GHG emissions in the atmosphere has already caused the climate to change
significantly, as described above. To understand and project future climate conditions and
impacts, models are used to simulate how climate hazards will increase and intensify over the next
century. These models rely on a variety of scenarios that incorporate factors such as future land
use, population growth, technological innovation, and global GHG emission levels. One of the
frameworks commonly used in these models is the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP),
which outlines different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories.
Idenitfy priority
climate hazards and
impacts to develop
understanding and
context of climate
impacts on local
sectors and assets.
Climate
Impacts
Assessment
Informed by
assessment findings
to consider the
vulnerability
(exposure, sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity)
of local assets and
systems to climate
exacerbated hazards
and impacts.
Climate
Impact
Vulnerability
and Risk
Assessment
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 91.3
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 4
This climate impact summary will draw from two generations of climate models: Coupled Model
Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) 5 and CMIP 6. CMIP 5 uses Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) to project greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, while CMIP 6 uses Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which consider various climate policy scenarios in addition to
GHG concentration levels.
This climate impacts summary will primarily use CMIP 5 and Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 8.5. RCP 8.5 represents a” business-as-usual” scenario in which emissions
continue at their current trajectory. RCP 8.5 is derived from multiple models and is consistent
across most climate projections. It is a high emissions scenario and projects a global temperature
warming of about 4.3˚C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperatures.
This climate impacts summary primarily uses RCP 8.5 because it represents the most realistic
emissions trajectory that we are currently on. When RCP 8.5 data wasn’t available for priority
climate impacts, this climate impacts summary relied on other scenarios such as RCP 6.0
(moderate emissions scenario) or SSP 5-8.5 (high emissions scenario using CMIP 6).
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.4
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 5
Summary of Climate Impacts
The following sections provide an overview of key climate change impacts and how they are
expected to affect local sectors. This assessment aims to build a baseline awareness to guide the
city’s resilience planning within the Climate Resilience Sub-element.
Extreme Heat
Average temperature in the Northwest and Washington state has warmed over the last century and
is expected to warm at a faster rate through the next century and beyond. The Northwest's average
yearly temperature has increased by 2°F since the early 20th century. Additionally, the coldest day
of the year from 1986 to 2016 was 4.78°F warmer compared to 1901 to 1960. In East Wenatchee,
annual average temperatures have increased approximately 0.26°F per decade since 1900 (Figure
1)(Office of the Washington State Climatologist, 2023).
Figure 1. Annual Average Temperature East Wenatchee (Office of the Washington State Climatologist,
2023)
By the 2080s, annual average temperature in the Northwest is projected to increase by 10.0°F
under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) relative to the period 1950–1999 (Chang, et al., 2023).
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.5
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 6
Figure 2 shows the change in summer (June-August) average maximum temperature in Douglas
County for future 30-year periods compared to the 1980-2009 average. The change in average
summer maximum temperature is an indicator of heat stress for people, ecosystems, an d
infrastructure (Raymond & Rogers, 2022). By mid-century (2040-2069), average summer maximum
temperature is expected to increase by 6.6°F in the county. By end-century (2070-2099), average
summer maximum temperature is expected to increase by 11.4°F in the county.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Maximum Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 91.6
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 7
Figure 2. Summer Average Maximum Temperature Douglas County (Raymond & Rogers, 2022)
Extreme heat will have varied impacts on local sectors, such as emergency management, and their
social, economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. Extreme heat events like the 2021
heat dome will likely continue, causing cascading impacts on residents, businesses, and systems.
The 2021 heat dome, for instance, spiked heat-related emergency calls, disrupted transit and
highways, and caused temporary business closures throughout the state.
The table below details how extreme heat may impact sectors, as identified by Commerce’s
Planning Guidance, and their assets in East Wenatchee (Washington Department of Commerce,
2023). The following table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and
county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food
Systems
•Heat stress on crops and livestock, leading to reduced crop
yields and higher pest survival rates.
•Increased demand for irrigation.
Building and Energy •Increased cooling demand during summer months.
Douglas County, Washington. Change in Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Maximum Temperature
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 82.2 degrees F
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.7
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 8
Sector Extreme Heat Impacts/Exposure
•More variable hydroelectric generating capacity due to
changing streamflow, potentially leading to mismatch in
timing of electricity generation and demand.
Cultural Resources and
Practices
• Increasing water temperature in streams and rivers affects
salmon and other culturally significant resources and
species.
Ecosystems
•Local extirpation or range shifts of species not able to adapt
to temperature extremes.
•Habitat shifts (e.g., forested areas converted to scrublands).
•Increased stress on cold-water species in lakes and rivers.
Emergency Management
•Increased frequency and intensity of heatwave or heat dome
events.
•Strain on emergency services from rising need for responses
to heat-related health issues and travel disruptions.
Health and Well-being
•Increase in heat-related deaths and illnesses, particularly
among the elderly, low-income, and other sensitive
populations.
•Increase in water temperatures will alter timing, extent,
location and intensity of vibrio growth and harmful algal
blooms, increasing exposure and risk of waterborne
diseases.
Transportation •Heat damage to roads and bridges, leading to higher
maintenance costs and more frequent economic disruptions.
Water Resources
•Water scarcity due to less winter snowpack, a shift in the
timing of spring snowmelt, and lower summer streamflow.
•Increased aquifer drawdown and competition for water.
City assets affected by extreme heat may include:
•Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
•Key community facilities and structures, such as schools, elder care facilities, clinics,
grocery stores, Eastmont Parks and Recreation Center, and the community pool
•Culturally significant sites such as faith-based communities/organizations, Clovis Dig Site
(Richey-Roberts Clovis Site), and recreational facilities
•Local businesses
•Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River and city tree canopy
•Local police department, Ballard Ambulance, and medical/emergency centers
•All park systems, orchards/vineyards, and the golf course
•LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, and Loop Trail
•City housing and commercial/retail buildings (i.e. Aces, Costco, JOANN, UPS, etc.)
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.8
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 9
Drought and Snowpack
In the Northwest, summer precipitation is projected to decline under all scenarios . In addition,
projected winter temperature increases will increase the likelihood that precipitation will fall as
rain instead of snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack (Frankson, et al. , 2022). Declining
summer precipitation and reduced snowpack will contribute to more frequent, longer, and more
severe regional drought conditions that increase wildfire risk and decrease water availability
(Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfires in the region in 2020 and 2021 damaged water systems, disrupted
electricity, and increased sediment in waterways. These issues will worsen with more frequent and
severe droughts and wildfires.
In Douglas County, most drought events affect the region for at least two to three months at a time.
The USDA has recorded 585 total weeks of drought over the last 19 years, and given the historic
precedent set by past droughts, it is highly likely that East Wenatchee will experience more season-
long droughts in the future (Douglas County, 2019). July 2024 was the 4th driest July on record in
Douglas County over the past 130 years (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration &
National Integrated Drought Information System, 2024). In the future, Douglas County is projected
to experience a decrease in summer precipitation of 24% by mid-century (2050-2079) and 29% by
end-century (2070-2099) (Table 1).
Table 1. Precipitation Drought Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Precipitation Drought (Salathé, E.P. et al., 2010)
Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.*
Douglas County Douglas County
Likelihood of a year with summer precipitation
below 75% of historical normal 24% (18 to 34%) 29% (22 to 37%)
*Likelihood that summer (June-August) precipitation in any given year is below 75% of average precipitation,
the historical normal for the period 1980-2009.
Changes in snowpack levels and increased demand for water will impact the region’s water supply.
The change in seasonal water supply for any watershed in the Columbia Basin, including the area
of East Wenatchee, will vary based on local conditions and the watershed's elevation. Generally,
the Wenatchee watershed is expected to see increases in surface water supply in October to
March and decreases in June and July (Chelan County, 2020).
Additionally, projected temperature increases will increase the likelihood that precipitation will fall
as rain instead of snow, reducing water storage in the snowpack (Frankson, et al. , 2022). Table 2
shows the percent change over the next century of April 1 snowpack in Douglas. April 1st snowpack
is used as an indicator for the amount of stored water that becomes available during the melt
season. The projected decrease of April 1st snowpack indicates that less stored water will be
available for soil, streams, and reservoirs during the melt season (Raymond & Rogers, 2022). For
both mid- and end-century projections, there is a 99% chance that any year will have an April 1st
snowpack below 75% of average in Douglas County (Table 2).
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.9
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 10
Table 2. Snowpack Drought Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Likelihood of April 1st snowpack below 75% of
normal). Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.
Douglas County Douglas County
Chance that any given year has an April 1st snowpack
below 75% of the normal amount, or the 1980-2009
average, for future 30-year periods (RCP8.5)
99% (96 to 100%) 99% (99 to 100%)
Drought will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social, economic, and environmental
assets in coming decades. The table below details how drought may impact sectors and their
assets in East Wenatchee. The following table uses information from the University of Washington
Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool
and relevant city and county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Drought Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and Food
Systems
•Reduced water availability for crops, livestock, and processing.
•Increased demand for irrigation due to longer and warmer
growing season.
Building and Energy •Lower energy production from hydroelectric dams.
Cultural Resources and
Practices
•Loss of locally grown, temperature-sensitive foods that are
culturally important (berries, salmon, etc.).
Ecosystems
•Reduced water availability, stressed vegetation, and diminished
habitat quality.
•Increased vulnerability to wildfires through ecosystem stress and
increase of fuel load (e.g., grassland dries out and increases
tinder for large wildfire).
Emergency
Management
• Heightened demand for emergency services to enhance
planning, preparation, and response efforts in addressing water
shortages.
Health and Well-being
•Increased erosion, dust storms, environmental degradation, and
heightened wildfire risks affecting exposed and/or sensitive
populations.
•Reduced outdoor recreation opportunities relying on consistent
water supply and snowpack, such as rafting or tubing.
Water Resources
•Degraded water quality from reduced dilution of pollutants in
rivers and streams.
•Increased need for voluntary or mandatory water conservation
measures and usage restrictions.
City assets affected by drought may include:
•Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
•Eastmont Parks and Rec Center and other park/recreation assets
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.10
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 11
Sector Drought Impacts/Exposure
•Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Eco Bench (dry wheat), City tree canopy,
and remaining shrub step
•Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
Wildfire, Smoke, and Air Quality
Wildfire smoke can be severe in the region, especially in highly populated areas of eastern
Washington (Chang, et al., 2023). Wildfire activity is expected to continue to rise in central and
eastern Washington as temperatures increase. The area burned in central Washington forests is
projected to quadruple by the 2040s, compared to the 1980-2006 average, under a moderate (RCP
6.0) greenhouse gas scenario (Chelan County, 2020).2
Douglas County and East Wenatchee face significant wildfire risks due to vegetative fuel loads and
recurring droughts. Since 2006, the area has experienced 72 significant wildfires, averaging 5.14
major wildfires per year, and is likely to increase in frequency going forward (Douglas County,
2019). Table 3 presents the change in high fire danger days in Douglas County, indicating a greater
potential for wildfire activity if ignition sources and ample fuels are present.
Table 3. Wildfire Danger Douglas County
• 2010-2039 2040-2069
Wildfire Danger (T. Sheehan, et al., 2015)
Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.*
Douglas County Douglas County
Change in annual high fire danger days 6 days
(0 to 11 days)3
10 days
(5 to 18 days)
*Table shows the change in annual high fire danger days compared to the 1971 -2000 average.
Error! Reference source not found. shows the likelihood of climate and fuel conditions favorable
for wildfire in the county for future 30-year periods. For example, a value of 0.6 for the county in
2030-2059 means that there is a 60% chance that a year in that time period will have conditions
that are favorable for wildfire. By end-century (2070-2099), this likelihood is as high as 0.85 (85%)
under an RCP 8.5 scenario.
2 These projections are for increases in area burned on average - predicting fire in any given year or how big
any particular wildfire season will be is not possible, despite the clear trend towards increasing area burned.
3 Represents the model’s median value for each indicator, while the range (in parentheses) indicates 10 th and
90th percentile of values.
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.11
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 12
Increased frequency, size, and severity (acres burned) of wildfires will also lead to increased
exposure to wildfire smoke and reduced air quality. Reduced air quality is especially harmful to
low-income individuals, unhoused individuals, farmworkers, older adults, young children, pregnant
people, and those with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma, heart disease, and diabetes,
among others (Chang, et al., 2023).
In 2023, there were 1,880 wildfires statewide, the second-highest total in state history, and smoke
affected Central Washington communities longer than elsewhere (Washington State Governor's
Office, 2024). East Wenatchee is one of the state’s most affected communities from wildfire
smoke, as shown by the WA DOH ‘Smoke scores’, which are cumulative measurements of airborne
fine particulate matter from wildfires between 2016 and 2022. One census tract in East Wenatchee
reached 6,174, while the statewide average was 2,289 (Washington State Governor's Office, 2024).
Wildfire, smoke, and reduced air quality will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social,
economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. The table below details how wildfire,
smoke, and reduced air quality may impact sectors and their assets in East Wenatchee. The
following table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's (UW
Douglas County, Washington. Likelihood of Climate and Fuel Conditions for Wildfire
Higher Scenario (RCP 8.5), Historical (1980-2009) Value: 0.11(11%)
Figure 3. Wildfire Likelihood Douglas County (Raymond & Rogers, 2022)
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.12
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 13
CIG) Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and county
resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Wildfire Impacts/Exposure
Building and
Energy
•Risk to vital energy infrastructure, as wildfires can destroy transmission
lines, cutting off basic services for extended periods of time.
Economic
Development
•Increased disruptions of business continuity and lost revenue and wages.
•Damage to key industries, including recreation, timber, and agriculture
sectors.
Ecosystems
•Increased erosion affecting land (forests, grasslands, etc.) and local water
sources. Sustainable management of wildfires can promote biological
diversity and healthy ecosystems.
Emergency
Management
•Blocked evacuation routes, hindering emergency response efforts and
resource arrival.
Health and
Well-being
•Human health effects through loss of life, injury, and mental health issues
caused by extreme events or displacement. Exposure to an extreme event -
like a fire or heat dome event - can create mental health challenges even if
displacement or other physical impacts don’t occur.
•Poor air quality exacerbating respiratory problems, especially for older
adults, young children, pregnant people, and those with pre-existing health
conditions.
Water
Resources
•Water distribution infrastructure damage.
•Degraded water quality in reservoirs and increase in the need for treatment
and filtration.
Zoning and
Development
• Increased damage to buildings, especially for homes located in the
wildland-urban interface and places where development transitions into
undeveloped areas.
City assets affected by wildfire and smoke may include:
•Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
•Douglas County PUD facilities and structures, schools, elder care facilities, clinics, Eastmont
Parks and Rec Center, park systems, and other community resources
•Local businesses
•Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Eco Bench (dry wheat), City tree canopy,
and remaining shrub step
•City Police Department, Wenatchee Valley Fire Department, Ballard Ambulance, and
emergency centers
•LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, Loop Trail, and EV Charging Stations
•Wastewater treatment facilities and natural gas supply
•Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
•Housing and commercial/retail buildings
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.13
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 14
Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
While precipitation in the Wenatchee Valley will continue to be greatly influenced by year-to-year
variability, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase
across the region, as well as more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow (Chelan
County, 2020), (Chang, et al., 2023). This will increase the frequency and intensity of rain-on-snow
(ROS) and rapid snowmelt flooding due to warmer winter temperatures. While projections of
annual precipitation are variable, Douglas County is projected to experience an increase in total
annual precipitation through mid- and end-century, based on an RCP 8.5 scenario (Table 4).
Table 4. Annual Precipitation Douglas County
• 2050-2079 2070-2099
Total Annual Precipitation (Salathé, E.P. et al.,
2010) Accessed via Climate Mapping for a Resilient
Washington.
Douglas County Douglas County
Percent change in average total annual
precipitation for future 30-year periods compared
to the 1980-2009 average.
19.1% (12.6 to 28.4%) 24.7% (12.9 to 37%)
Seasonal precipitation projections are mixed for jurisdictions East of the Cascades; however, a
majority of models project increases in precipitation for winter, spring, and fall precipitation and
decreases in summer precipitation. Figure 4 shows projected change in total summer and winter
precipitation (%) for the region east of the Cascades through mid- and end-century. The figure
presents precipitation projections from several climate models, with the average value
represented by the line in the middle of each box. The high emissions scenario projects an 8.5%
increase in winter precipitation in the 2050s and 6.3% decrease in the summer through the 2050s
(Rogers, 2021). Through the 2080s, winter precipitation is projected to increase by 14.6%, while
summer precipitation is expected to decrease by 9.9% (Rogers, 2021).
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.14
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 15
Figure 4. Projected change in summer and winter precipitation (%) for areas east of the Cascades in the
2050s and 2080s relative to 1950-1999 for a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) (Rogers, 2021)
These precipitation changes, especially increased precipitation in winter months, will likely result
in an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in East Wenatchee, with the most
vulnerable areas including the convergence of the Wenatchee River with other rivers and the
headwaters (Chelan County, 2020). In addition, rapid snowmelt driven by higher winter and
summer temperatures could result in increased flooding as snowpack melts faster and earlier in
the season. East Wenatchee is likely to experience flash flooding in low-lying developments (e.g.
Loop Trail, Hydro Park), heavily modified riparian areas, localized areas from highly modified draws
and canyons, and on roadways with poor drainage.
Extreme precipitation and flooding will have varied impacts on local sectors and their social,
economic, and environmental assets in coming decades. The table below details how extreme
precipitation and flooding may impact sectors and their assets in East Wenatchee. The following
table uses information from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's (UW CIG)
Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington (CMRW) webtool and other city and county resources.
AFFECTED SECTORS AND ASSETS
Sector Extreme Precipitation Impacts/Exposure
Agriculture and
Food Systems
•Delayed planting, reduced crop quality, and increased erosion and
root diseases.
Cultural Resources
and Practices
•Minimal to complete damage of community assets, such as
community gardens, historic buildings, and local businesses.
Economic
Development
•Increased insurance premiums due to more extreme/frequent
flooding.
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.15
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 16
Sector Extreme Precipitation Impacts/Exposure
Ecosystems
•Loss of river shore and riparian habitat to flooding and erosion,
where sufficient space for habitat migration is not available.
•Altered streamflow patterns, sedimentation, and nutrient runoff,
which can disrupt aquatic habitats and affect fish populations and
water quality.
Emergency
Management
•Disrupted essential services such as emergency response and
medical services due to impacted roads and infrastructure.
Health and Well-
being
•Heightened health impacts such as injury, spread of disease,
respiratory affects, and mental health effects.
Transportation •Damaged roads from flooding, landslides, and erosion, leading to
higher maintenance costs and disrupting essential services.
Water Resources •Increased demands on stormwater and sewer management systems
with the potential for stormwater and sewer overflow.
Zoning and
Development
•Agricultural, commercial, industrial, and residential buildings in
floodplains at risk from intensified flooding due to heavier
precipitation.
•Need for new or upgraded flood-control and erosion-control
structures.
City assets affected by extreme precipitation and flooding may include:
•Agriculture (orchards, vineyards) in city limits and UGA
•Douglas County PUD facilities and structures, schools, elder care facilities, and other
community buildings and resources
•Local businesses
•Riparian areas/shorelines along the Columbia River, Sand Canyon drainage, Eco Bench, tree
canopy, remaining shrub step.
•Police Department and emergency centers
•LINK Transit, highways and bridges, Valley Mall Parkway, and Loop Trail
•Wastewater Treatment Facilities
•Water District Well Fields and Upper Columbia Irrigation District
•Housing and commercial/retail buildings (e.g. Aces, Costco, JOANN, UPS, etc.)
Next Steps
The climate impacts summary identifies historical and projected climate impacts, with the goal of
supporting the climate policy audit and identifying gaps and opportunities within East Wenatchee’s
Comprehensive Plan. This work will inform the City’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA),
which will ultimately guide the development of the Climate Resilience Sub-element for the
Comprehensive Plan. Moving forward, we will seek review and feedback from the community and
City staff to ensure that the climate impacts summary is comprehensive and accurately reflects
local concerns and priorities. This input will be crucial for informing the upcoming policy audit,
ensuring that the policies identified are robust and responsive to the climate challenges identified.
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.16
Exhibit A
Climate Impacts Assessment
Cascadia Consulting Group, Inc. | 17
Bibliography
Chang, M., Erikson, L., Araujo, K., Asinas, E., Chisholm Hatfield, S., Crozier, L., . . . Shandas, V.
(2023). Ch. 27. Northwest. Fifth National Climate Assessment.
doi:https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH27
Chelan County. (2020). Chelan County Climate Resilience Strategy. Retrieved from
https://www.co.chelan.wa.us/files/natural-
resources/documents/DRAFT%20Chelan%20Climate%20Resiliency%20Strategy%202020
_1023_v2_sm.pdf
Douglas County. (2019). Hazard Mitigation Plan. Retrieved from
https://www.eastwenatcheewa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/142/2019-Douglas-County-
Multi-Jurisdictional-Hazard-Mitigation-Plan-PDF
Frankson, et al. . (2022). Washington State Climate Summary. Retrieved from
https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/wa/
Marvel, K., Su, W., Delgado, R., Aarons, S., Chatterjee, A., Garcia, M., . . . Vose, R. (2023). Ch. 2.
Climate trends. Fifth National Climate Assessment.
doi:https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH2
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, & National Integrated Drought Information
System. (2024). Drought Conditions for Douglas County. Retrieved from
https://www.drought.gov/states/washington/county/Douglas
Office of the Washington State Climatologist. (2023). PNW Temperature, Precipitation, and SWE
Trend Analysis Tool. Retrieved from https://climate.washington.edu/climate -
data/trendanalysisapp/
Perlwitz, J., Knutson, T., Kossin, J., & LeGrande, A. (2017). Large-scale circulation and climate
variability. Climate Science Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/J0RV0KVQ.
Raymond, C., & Rogers, M. (2022). Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington. Retrieved from
https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/climate-mapping-for-a-resilient-washington/
Rogers, M. (2021). Pacific Northwest Climate Projections Tool. UW Climate Impacts Group.
Retrieved from https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/pacific-northwest-climate-
projection-tool/
Salathé, E.P. et al. (2010). Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington.
Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y
T. Sheehan, et al. (2015). Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of
the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures. Retrieved from
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.023
Washington Department of Commerce. (2023). Climate Element Planning Guidance. Retrieved
from https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/fpg3h0lbwln2ctqjg7jg802h54ie19jx
Washington Department of Commerce. (2023). Climate Element Planning Guidance. Retrieved
from https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/fpg3h0lbwln2ctqjg7jg802h54ie19jx
Appendix 2: Climate Impacts Summary pg. 9.17
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 92
Appendix 3: City Asset List
♦E1 Eastmont HS
♦E2 Eastmont Jr High
♦E3 Sterling Jr High
♦E4 Kenroy Elementary
♦E5 Lee Elementary
♦E6 Grant Elementary
♦E7 Cascade Elementary
♦E8 Clovis Pt. Elementary
♦E9 Eastmont Pre School
♦E10 Canyon View Group Home
♦E11 Bus Barn
♦WW12 Douglas County Sewer
District Admin Office
♦WW13 Treatment Plant
♦W14 East Wenatchee Water
District Admin Office
♦W15 Fancher Hts Tank
♦W16 10th St Tank
♦W17 Equipment yard & tanks
♦W18 35 St NE Tank
♦W19 Lower Fancher Hts Tank
♦W20 Kentucky St Tanks
♦P21 Douglas County PUD Main
Office/Shop
♦P22 10th St Substation
♦P23 Doneen Substation
♦P24 35th NE Substation
♦P25 S Nile Substation
♦R26 Low Income Housing
♦R27 Low Income Housing
♦R28 Low Income Housing
♦R29 Low Income Housing
♦R30 Low Income Housing
♦R31 Low Income Housing
♦R32 Low Income Housing
♦R33 Low Income Housing
♦R34 Mobile Home Park
♦R35 Mobile Home Park
♦R36 Mobile Home Park
♦R37 Riverside Mobile Home Park
♦R38 Mobile Home Park
♦R39 Mobile Home Park
♦R40 Senior Living Facility -
Bonaventure
♦R41 Senior Living Facility - Kadie
Glen
♦R42 Senior Living Facility -
Sunrise East
♦R43 Senior Living Facility - East
Wenatchee Assisted Living
♦S44 Ballard Ambulance
♦S45 Confluence Health East
Wenatchee Clinic
♦S46 Columbia Valley Community
Health Campus
♦T47 George Sellar Bridge
♦T48 Pipeline Bridge
♦T49 Odabashian Bridge
Exhibit A
East Wenatchee Climate Vulnerability Assessment
Page 93
Appendix 4. City of East Wenatchee
UGA Areas
Exhibit A